Friday, June 22, 2018

3GML Position & Team Rankings

As we progress into summer, the staff writers at 3GML headquarters take a deep dive into the rosters of the 3GML AFC East squads to determine (on paper) who the best team in the league is. 

Although this practice is purely subjective, the writers correctly identified last year's #1 team and eventual Super Bowl Champions (New York Jets) while incorrectly selecting the AFC runners up (Miami) as the worst AFC East squad a year ago.

Here are the position and team rankings heading into the 2018 3GML season:

QUARTERBACK (x2)
BUFFALO: Aaron Rodgers (18)
The quintessential quarterback who can do it all. Rodgers is arguably the most valuable player for any 3GML team -  as he goes, so do the Bills.
NEW YORK: Derek Carr & Lamar Jackson (12)
A good old fashioned QB battle is brewing with the solid Carr looking to hold off the electric Jackson. The team claims they can run a true QB system (a-la Florida Gators with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow), but this isn't the SEC.
NEW ENGLAND: Dak Prescott (6)
The forgotten man in the QB discussion, Dak can use 2018 to reassert himself as a top tier quarterback in the eyes of fans and voters. 

RUNNINGBACK
BUFFALO: Todd Gurley, LeGarrette Blount & Kenneth Dixon (6)
The addition of Blount will help Gurley keep tread on his tires as the team moves into the winter months. Gurley can do it all.
NEW YORK: David Johnson, Duke Johnson & Derrius Guice (6)
The Jets have made it clear that this will be David Johnson's last year in New York (Duke as well). With the addition of Derrius Guice, will the three personalities be able to put egos aside to repeat last year's dominant ground attack?
NEW ENGLAND: Alvin Kamara, Dion Lewis & Alex Collins (6)
All three RBs could start on any other team. The dynamic Kamara looks to be the next big star in the league.

TIGHT END
NEW YORK: Rob Gronkowski & Tyler Eifert (9)
The recent addition of Gronkowski makes this unit terrifying. Tyler Eifert (another offseason addition) is super-talented but also shares injury concerns alongside the polarizing Gronk. Can this unit remain health and become an all-time tandem?
BUFFALO: Hunter Henry & Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (6)
Aaron Rodgers leans a lot on the talented Henry while Sefarian-Jenkins adds a speedy TE2 to the mix.
NEW ENGLAND: Eric Ebron & Michael Roberts (3)
Ebron couldn't secure a new contract in Detroit but should blossom in the Patriots system. Had to google Michael Roberts. 

WIDE RECEIVER
NEW ENGLAND: Julio Jones, Jermaine Kearse & Malcolm Mitchell (8)
This team seems destined to snag Dez Bryant as well with all the swirling rumors. Julio is the best WR in the game.
BUFFALO: Brandin Cooks, Jordy Nelson & Juju Smith-Schuster (7)
A solid and complimentary group with the speed (Cooks), hands (Nelson) and route-running and run blocking (Smith-Schuster) needed across the board.
NEW YORK: Tyreek Hill, Jamison Crowder & Cameron Meredith (3)
Field stretchers who may be decoys at times and long TD haulers at others. 

OFFENSIVE LINE (x2)
NEW YORK: Marshal Yanda, Zack Martin, Travis Frederick, Lane Johnson & Forrest Lamp (18)
Again the best unit in the league and perhaps all-time. The group is getting older and better, but more expensive. 
BUFFALO: Jake Matthews, TJ Lang, Josh Sitton, Will Hernandez & Ryan Ramczyk (12)
Solid across the board. The addition of Hernandez out of UTEP adds a nastiness to the unit.
NEW ENGLAND: Andrew Norwell, Josh Kline, Ben Jones, Marcus Gilbert & Ja'wuan James (6)
An under-appreciated unit who may well add James Daniels as a stalwart under center by mid-season. This unit compliments itself better than any other OL group in the league. 

DEFENSIVE LINE
BUFFALO: Geno Atkins, Vita Vea & Vinny Curry (6)
Both Atkins and Curry may be on their way out after this season due to salary cap constraints. Vea is a perfect fit in the middle of the attacking Bills Red Rush.
NEW YORK: Aaron Donald & Jarran Reed (6)
Donald is the best DT in the game. Reed is a solid #2 whose job is to occupy blockers to allow the talented edge rushers alongside him to eat.
NEW ENGLAND: Damon Harrison & A'Shawn Robinson (6)
Harrison and Robinson comprise the best run-stuffing DT duo in the NFL. Both are perfect pieces to support the philosophy of the NE defensive attack. 

LINEBACKERS
NEW ENGLAND: Reuben Foster, Demario Davis & Tremaine Edmunds (9)
The sky is the limit for this group. Edmunds should be free to wreak havoc alongside the solid Davis and the imposing Foster. 
NEW YORK: Zach Brown, Brandon Marshall & Mychal Kendricks (6)
This veteran group of LBs act as the focused leaders for the Jets defense. All can run, hit and diagnose plays to get their younger peers lined up and ready to go. 
BUFFALO: Zack Cunningham & Reggie Ragland (3)
A solid group, but several notches below the talent level compared to their 3GML peers. 

EDGE RUSHERS (x2)
NEW YORK: Joey Bosa & Yannick Ngakoue (18)
Both are tough, technical and fast. They are often impossible to block and share relentless motors. Good luck.
BUFFALO: Myles Garrett & Dont'a Hightower (12)
With the continued focus on an aggressive defensive attack, Garrett should see ridiculous sack numbers as he enters year #2. Hightower is a vital piece for the Bills defensive attack. 
NEW ENGLAND: Nick Chubb & Alex Okafor (6)
Chubb never stops working and Okafor has earned his nickname as The Hammer.

CORNERBACKS
NEW YORK: Jalen Ramsey, Desmond Trufant & Adoree' Jackson (8)
It is hard to imagine a more talented group of cornerbacks in the league. Ramsey is often viewed as the top CB in the league while Trufant is similarly skilled.
BUFFALO: Casey Hayward, Patrick Robinson & Desmond King (7)
Hayward and Robinson will lock down the outside while King will look to continue his strong play from a year ago.
NEW ENGLAND: Marshon Lattimore, Ronald Darby & Rashaan Melvin (3)
Lattimore exceeded expectations as a rookie and will look to capture the same magic in year #2. Darby and Melvin can both play at high levels and will not get rattled by any moment. 

SAFETIES
NEW ENGLAND: Derwin James & Marcus Williams (9)
James is a potential Sean Taylor clone who can help Williams build off his strong rookie campaign. 
NEW YORK: Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer & Malik Hooker (5)
Byard came on as one of the top playmaking free safeties a year ago while Poyer was a sneaky strong pickup. Hooker should continue to develop after the ACL tear a year ago; People forget he was a top talent from the '17 draft hidden among the Jets diamonds. 
BUFFALO: Jamal Adams, John Johnson III & Budda Baker (4)
This trio of sophomores will all play in the Bills scheme. They are all playmakers and willing hitters.

SPECIAL TEAMS
NEW ENGLAND: Michael Dickson & Dan Bailey (9)
Dickson was worth the draft pick and Bailey is a true professional.
BUFFALO: Marquette King & Chris Boswell (6)
King was a smart pickup - The Bills can handle the antics.
NEW YORK: Loc Edwards & Ka'imi Fairbain (3)
The Jets may punt 2-3 times all season. They may also look to 'go for 2' much more this season with Gronk and Eifert as end zone targets. 

OVERALL SCORE (Note: QB, O-Line, and Edge were counted twice based on position value)
NEW YORK: (94)
A predictable outcome for a team comprised of many of the biggest names in the sport. Many have speculated that this may be the last year the team can 'keep' a majority of their key players before the salary cap implications begin to test the drafting mettle of the GM. But, make no mistake about it: If this team can continue to develop Carr while giving Lamar Jackson opportunities to make plays on offense, the Jets can be scary. The team has always been led by their all-world defensive unit and scheme - If the offense can catch up, the team should look to repeat. 
BUFFALO: (87)
The team has continued to address needs and build a solid foundation around their stars. Despite the obvious advantage of having Rodgers under center, the team is beginning to take on a more old school offensive approach with a Gurley/Blount backfield behind a 'nastier-by-the-year' O-line led by Will Hernandez and impressive sophomore Ryan Ramczyk. The defense has traditionally been Geno Atkins and the gang. With the selection of Myles Garrett last year and the aggressive foundational change toward an attacking 3-4 midway through the 2017 season, the team has begun to highlight their edge rushers while allowing their talent in the secondary to make game altering plays. 
NEW ENGLAND: (71)
This score seems low looking at the young, exceptional talent being accumulated by the Patriots. In a year, this team could easily occupy the top spot in our rankings if all players develop according to plan. Step #1 for the Patriots: Taste the playoffs. With Dak Prescott utilizing his athleticism to extend plays alongside the rock solid OL, the Patriots are setup to surprise the AFC East. Julio Jones should command double teams to open up space on the edges for Alvin Kamara and Eric Ebron to make plays. The Pats also own the most cohesive defensive unit in the league with Damon Harrison and A'Shawn perfectly combined to stop the run alongside rookie Bradley Chubb and the most physical group of linebackers in the AFC East. Derwin James and Marshon Lattimore may eventually take the place of Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman as the leaders of the best secondary in the league. 

Thursday, June 7, 2018

NFL Top 100 players in the 3GML

A look at players on the NFL top 100 who also reside on 3GML teams.

95. Lane Johnson (Jets)
88. Yannick Ngakoue (Jets)
82. Marshon Lattimore (Patriots)
80. Kevin Byard (Jets)
74. Cameron Wake (Dolphins)
71. Zack Martin (Jets)
63. Geno Atkins (Bills)
60. Derek Carr (Jets)
59. Casey Hayward (Bills)
40. Tyreek Hill (Jets)
37. Joey Bosa (Jets)
20. Alvin Kamara (Patriots)
17. Jalen Ramsey (Jets)
15. Rob Gronkowski (Jets)
10. Aaron Rodgers (Bills)
7. Aaron Donald (Jets)
6. Todd Gurley II (Bills)
4. Julio Jones (Patriots)

Friday, June 1, 2018

3GML Camp Position Battles to Watch

As spring slowly turns into summer, football fans subtly pass into that 100 days until kickoff window (98 to go!).

Now that the draft and free agent dust has settled and rookies have begun their NFL journeys, let's look at some crucial position battles going on within our AFC East franchises.

NEW YORK JETS
The reigning champs get the leadoff spot here after a dominant run to the title. With their rivals from Miami purging their roster and turning the team over to Ryan Tannehill, the Super Bowl LII champions will now focus on upending the upstart New England Patriots and the Aaron Rodgers led Buffalo Bills.

The Jets have not been afraid to move on from stars on bloated contracts after jettisoning Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor this offseason. The team has also been rumored to be looking to deal All Pro offensive lineman Marshal Yanda as they look to get a deal done with DT Aaron Donald.

But nothing is more juicy than a quarterback controversy.

JETS BATTLE #1: Derek Carr vs. Lamar Jackson
Most writers are not giving the selection of Jackson as much as attention as they should. Yes, Derek Carr is only 27 years old, a proven leader, and fresh off a Super Bowl title. But didn't the Jets win a playoff game with Nathan Peterman and Kevin Hogan calling the shots? The Jets are a defensive-focused franchise and will always go with the best player available regardless of one's credentials.

The Cam Newton experiment failed because Cam turned the ball over too much for Todd Bowles' liking. If Jackson can be electrifying with his arm and legs (a-la Deshaun Watson for Houston last year) and take care of the football, he will be the best man under center for a team build offensively for speed and multiplicity.

Think about it this way. Imagine a 2 back set with David Johnson and Duke Johnson attacking the flats. Tyreek Hill and Jamison Crowder are sprinting down the seams and Lamar Jackson sees a small bit of space in the center of the field; Can your middle linebacker catch him?

PREDICTION: The Jets spend the first part of the season easing Jackson into the lineup with special 'packages' before yielding way to the electric playmaker by mid-season. During the offseason, Carr is sold for a king's ransom bring the Jets more draft capital to continue their run.

JETS BATTLE #2: Brandon Marshall vs. Myles Jack
The addition of Mychal Kendricks led to this potential battle between the battle tested Marshall and the up-and-coming Jack. The Jets are creative enough on defense to get Marshall and Jack both a healthy amount of snaps, so this battle if more of an opportunity to put the rest of the league on notice that the Jets linebackers are good and fast.

Jack has been in Bowles' doghouse in the past (even being reported as on the trade block after his rookie season). but the PREDICTION here will be that a Kendricks, Jatavis Brown, Zach Brown and Jack combination feels like the four who see the most PT (with Marshall potentially looking like a trade option down the line).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
On paper, the New England Patriots had a potentially dominant first two days of the NFL Draft. Bringing in DE Bradley Chubb (arguably the best pass rusher in the draft), LB Tremaine Edmunds (arguably the freakiest athlete in the draft), SS Derwin James (arguably the player with the highest ceiling in the draft next to Quenton Nelson and Saquon Barkley), C James Daniels who many believe should start from day #1, and DT Maurice Hurst whom Pro Football Focus viewed as a Top 5 pick prior to the now cleared medical condition.

With all due respect to the Jets and their talent accumulation, these Patriots feel like a Nick Saban led Alabama squad re-tooling every year and dominating the SEC.

PATRIOTS BATTLE #1: Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, and Alvin Kamara
The smart teams do not overpay running backs and can find ways to get their playmakers the ball. However, this battle would feel a lot better if the team had one more grinder in the mix. Yes, some compared Alex Collins to former 3GML MVP Chris Ivory coming out of college, but Collins feels very pedestrian. Dion Lewis is a true team player and could absolutely earn a good number of touches for the team. But Alvin Kamara is the true star of the show.

Kamara can do it all and will be heavily featured in the Patriots 2018 attack. QB Dak Prescott can help get himself back to playing at a Pro Bowl level if he allows Kamara to work in space as a passing threat.

Kamara has done nothing to deserve this concern, but, as it is with any running back, durability will be an issue as the touches pile up. The PREDICTION here is that the Patriots move to grab another 10-touch power back to reduce Kamara's touch count as teams make their initial cuts.

PATRIOTS BATTLE #2: Nickelback
Not the Canadian rock band led by 6'1" Chad Kroeger, but the position to watch for the Patriots.

The Patriots drafted Derwin James for the future and to win now. James could play free or strong safety and can be effective as a linebacker if needed. There is no reason to bench Morgan Burnett and Marcus Williams has earned his time on the field.

Here is the bold PREDICTION: Looking at Marcus Williams' Zone (85) and Man (80) coverage ratings (using Madden metrics), Williams will most like make the most sense as the team's 3rd corner in Nickel packages similar to how Desmond King was utilized by Miami a year ago. It would be great to end with a Nickelback reference but I never made it as a wise man.

BUFFALO BILLS
The boldest offseason move made by the Bills brass was not drafting NT Vita Vea in the first round or trading up to take bulldozing G Will Hernandez out of UTEP, but it was the decision to hire the Rex Ryan-like former head coach out of Miami to run the team's defense.

A philosophical switch on defense is hard to justify to a fanbase that saw their team finish as the NFL's #3 ranked defense a year ago while leading the league in run defense and finishing #4 against the pass. The silver lining: The new DC led the league's #1 ranked defense, #1 ranked scoring defense, and #1 ranked passing defense a year ago.

With all that said, this team is all about Aaron Rodgers. With the team adding the speedy Brandin Cooks from New York and Rodgers' former Packer teammate Jordy Nelson, the team seems primed to make yet another deep playoff run.

BILLS BATTLE #1: Slot Receiver
Josh Doctson was the first ever draft pick of this current Bills regime, but he has yet to live up to his first round pedigree. The Bills are not a group to give up on their players, but the strong play a year ago by Juju Smith-Schuster has caused the team to rethink their plans for WR3.

Rodgers has been openly critical (at times) of Doctson for playing with a lack of confidence. Smith-Schuster on the other hand could look to play with a bit less confidence.

PREDICTION: Juju feels like a future Hines Ward for this team and that is a very good team for a group looking to improve their physicality in a brutally competitive AFC East. Look for the 2nd year man out of USC to earn that coveted spot as Aaron Rodgers' slot receiver.

BILLS BATTLE #2: Safeties Galore
Moving forward, expect the Bills to typically employ 5-6 starting caliber safeties.
With Jamal Adams expected to lockdown the SS position, the team needs to find PT for John Johnson III, Budda Baker (a favorite of the team's GM) and Desmond King (a favorite of the team's new DC).

Make no bones about it: This is a nice problem to have behind a pass rush that includes Myles Garrett and Donta Hightower and a D-line anchored by Vea, Geno Atkins, and Vinny Curry.

With Casey Hayward and Patrick Robinson set to man the outside corner positions, King, Baker, and Johnson III are in line to man the FS, NB, and 4th CB spot for a team that will regularly rotate their players.

PREDICTION: Look for King to win out as the team's starting slot corner. Johnson III seems to be the favorite to lineup predominantly at FS. That leaves Baker.

The UW product has already been rumored to be lining up as the team's primary return man and the team has confirmed that they are piloting a 'Predator' package highlighting Baker in blitz packages. The team is also not afraid to keep six DBs on the field during non-traditional times, so look for Baker to make his share of plays in 2018.