Sunday, April 28, 2019

Expert Draft Recap & Grades


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

1(9) DE Brian Burns (Florida St) 1(16) Carolina

Burns is a high upside player who will immediately pay dividends for the Patriots. New England plays different defenses based on personnel and matchups and Burns is the ultimate matchup piece. I think this is why they didn’t take superstar Josh Allen and instead traded back to add more picks and felt comfortable with Burns at 9. Him going to Carolina at 16 was a great potential for upside in the real NFL as well, as he’ll immediately start for them and will be their best pass rusher. As a Madden player he provides even bigger upside because he has elite speed for his size and position group. 

The downside here is that Burns is extremely small for an edge player and he’s likely to be better as an Anthony Barr type player than a pure edge player. It’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots utilize the player. I worry about his ability to stay healthy as he played around 230 lbs in college. This kid could be a star in the 3GML universe though. The biggest question though is at 6 how do you pass up Josh Allen? 

1(24) CB Byron Murphy (Washington) 2(33) Arizona

The Patriots had a huge need opposite Marshon Lattimore at corner and the Murphy draft selection is an immediate upgrade. Murphy is a high floor low upside player who was likely the premier zone coverage player in this class. Again it looks like New England is trying super hard to be multiple in their defensive patterns. Adding someone who can play on or off the line in Burns and adding an elite zone corner to pair with an elite man corner in Lattimore. I am worried that the team will be a bit discombobulated on that side of the ball though as when they play zone, Lattimore wont’ be at his best and when they play man Murphy doesn’t have the elite speed to matchup on the outside. The nice part here though is Murphy is one of the safest players in this class. He adds to the multiple defensive schemes that it seems like New England is trying to implement this upcoming season. The fit for him in Arizona with Vance Joseph and his super high zone scheme is a tremendous grab though as he makes corners look better than they typically are outside of his defense. 

2(37) T Jawaan Taylor (Florida) 2(35) Jacksonville

Taylor slid into round two and right into a really nice place here at 35. He was once seen as someone who could go as early as the 7th pick and instead he was still available on the draft’s second day. Taylor is a nice player and provides power and looks like a decent pass protector. The issue with this draft pick in terms of evaluation is that the team just signed Ju’wuan James to a massive contract at right tackle and has another guy better suited to the right side in Marcus Cannon. Where are they going to play Taylor? He doesn’t have the feet to play the left side, so someone is going to be playing out of position here. While the value was very solid here in round two, I believe Taylor might end up best suited as a guard for the Pats due to an abundance of right tackles on the roster. The really nice part of this though is that he went to an absolutely perfect spot as he is going to be the immediate starter for the Jags in real life and his upside is high. Good pick here in the 2nd regardless of where he plays on the line. Also in Madden at this point, position changes on the offensive line doesn't really matter, we don't know when they will fix that but until they do, Taylor may end up being the starting left tackle for the Super Bowl champs.

3(67) S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Florida) 3(105) New Orleans

The fact that he was available this late int he process made zero sense to me. I honestly thought he could go 32 in real life and his fall all the way to day 3 was absurd. CGJ is a truly impressive slot guy and that’s where he’ll likely start for New England. The point of this class was obviously to add versatility to the roster and adding him here continues that theme with CGJ able to play both safety and slot cornerback. He’s a really good player and his skill set is high, him going to New Orleans was also fantastic for the Pats. He could start immediately for them in the “big nickel” look or as a slot corner. His ability to play either safety spot also adds more versatility to the Pats. This was the best pick of the Patriots draft.

3(75) WR Kelvin Harmon (NC State) 6(206) Washington

Probably the pick that I wasn’t a fan of when the pick happened on draft night. Harmon is a solid player but as a madden receiver he looks like at best a number 3 or number 4. He doesn’t have elite speed and while he’s a good route runner he probably won’t end up as much more than a 3 or 4 in the real NFL. New England needed someone to pair with Julio and while their roster is deep at the position I would have preferred a higher upside player here. Harmon falling to the 6th was solid for the Pats as he goes in very cheap now, and the spot at Washington is good for him too as they have a shallow receiver pool. Harmon will likely end up as a 3rd or 4th wideout for the Pats and a reliable target for new starter Andrew Luck.

4(122) WR Riley Ridley (Georgia) 4(126) Chicago

Another in the duo of wide receivers with high floors and low upsides. Ridley is a really good route runner who figures out ways to get open. While he doesn’t project as a number two in madden due to lack of speed, he could provide solid potential in three or four wide receiver sets. Both Harmon and Ridley can play outside or inside and it makes a ton of sense for them to do that. The fit in Chicago is really good as well as he could get reps fairly early on in his career.

DRAFT RECAP
It was clear from the first round that New England wanted to get more versatile on both sides of the ball. Passing on an elite player like Josh Allen is something that I struggle with in this draft class though. Pairing Allen with an emerging superstar like Bradley Chubb would have created the nastiest one-two punch for the next decade in the NFL. I do think that Burns, Gardner-Johnson, and Murphy add a ton of versatility in coverage that maybe New England lacked last season. While there were other players that I believed were better overall, New England has always went with high floor players and they did an amazing job doing that again. They take safe players with moderate upside and lay out plays for their superstars to take advantage. Adding versatile pieces, depth at wide receiver, and a starting offensive linemen who slipped at good value means this is a damn good draft. 

Overall grade B+ 

MIAMI DOLPHINS

1(25) G/C Erik McCoy (Texas A&M) 2(48) New Orleans

McCoy was a pick that I think might look a bit better on paper than it actually was. I had McCoy as a second round grade but I totally understand it the more i think about the move. The Dolphins have always been a run first team and the interior of their line was not good last season. You add McCoy who projects to be a solid player and it’s an instant improvement. Also you’re in a league where the interior players are HOF Geno Atkins, Snacks Harrison who might be the NFL’s premier run defender, and Leonard Williams. For the style of play it made sense although I think there were better options on the board. The reason this pick turns out so damn good though is that McCoy ends up super cheap as a mid 2nd and ends up in the best scenario possible in New Orleans. It was a B pick and turns into an A due to location and cost. 

2(33) G Cody Ford (Oklahoma) 2(38) Buffalo

This guy is a Dolphin. Ford is a gigantic mauler who wants to smash you and push the pile every single play. As a tackle this move was only okay but as a guard it’s an awesome play at a very high value. The fact he goes to Buffalo in real life means he starts from day 1 and has a chance to increase his rating dramatically. The nice part here is even if in real football he’s not great, he fits the scheme and what he wants To do no matter what and as a run blocker and a power blocker he will always rate high. Good scheme fit and good move to kick him inside. 

2(61) S Nasir Adderley (Delaware) 2(60) Los Angeles Chargers

The best pick of the draft for Miami here was the Delaware kid. Adderly fell into a perfect role in the single high safety spot in that cover 3 where he’ll be excellent. Then you add that he gets selected late in the 2nd round adding good solid value on someone who likely would have been in play 30 spots before. The team needed a true free safety, and after the draft the team got Jamal Adams forming a tremendous 1-2 punch of the single high and the cloud 3 safety. The team will likely go to a tremendous amount of cover 3 this next season to utilize him well. Excellent pick here.

3(88) QB Ryan Finley (NC State) 4(104) Cincinnati

He went to a very good spot in Cincy and he very well could end up starting some games there in the next two seasons. Finley is capped but this is the type of quarterback the Dolphins love. They want a cheap game manager type player and Finley fits the bill. He is smart, savvy, and fairly accurate and the biggest thing is he takes care of the football which is rule one for a Dolphins player. Worst case you have a quality backup, which means in 3GML world he’ll play at least 3-4 games per season. Valuable position fell into a good spot. Solid move.

4(125) NT Greg Gaines (Washington) 4(134) Los Angeles Rams

He fell into a wonderful spot in LA where he could start games as early as his rookie season. The team needed interior D-line help and went heavy in the draft here. Gaines is a solid player who is more athletic than people think. He looks like he’ll be a rotational player in South Beach.

4(126) DT Daylon Mack (Texas A&M) 5(160) Baltimore

The anti- Gaines is Mack a penetrating nose tackle who wants to wreak havoc. He is a hit or miss guy but the team does what most good NFL teams do when they have a weakness which is throw multiple players at it and hope that one or two sticks. Mack has better upside than Gaines and went to a wonderful spot for him, might have been a touch early but I can’t blame him.

4(137) OLB D'Andre Walker (Georgia) 5(168) Tennessee

Sneaky good pick here for the Fins. Walker is a super solid player who while not a sack artist he is strong at the point of attack, can press the pocket, and does a good job of holding contain. He is a consistent player and fell into a perfect scheme for him in Tennessee. It woudln't surprise me to see Walker start some games for Miami before his time there is up.

5(167) WR KeeSean Johnson (Fresno St) 6(174) Arizona

Kind of an okay move. The team needs receiver depth and went after one here in Arizona. He seems okay, more of a 4th or 5th option but he’s got some skill and went to an offense where he might catch some balls. 

5(171) WR Travis Fulgham (ODU) 6(184) Detroit

Again needing depth at recevier and someone who is big and can block, the Dolphins went after size here. It’s a good move and a good scheme fit, but there’s a very legit chance he doesn't make the Lions roster.

6(175) DT Isaiah Buggs (Alabama) 6(192) Pittsburgh

Good solid move here to grab his 3rd defensive tackle. I’m sure he’s thinking he needs one to stick but two would be better. Buggs has a chance to make it in Pittsburgh and his style is suited for a 0-2 technique so he can do 34 or 43 defenses. 

7(230) G George Asafo-Adjei (Kentucky) 7(232) New York Giants

Depth piece on the offensive line who might make it with the Giants but I doubt he makes the Dolphins roster.

7(246) WR Keelan Doss (UC Davis) UDFA Oakland

Super solid pick late and someone who will probably surprise and make the Raiders receiving corps. He fits the offensive scheme and is a big slot that Miami likes to block on the sweeps plays. Could be a sleeper.

DRAFT RECAP
Miami went into this draft looking to do 3 things and they accomplished them all. They wanted to add depth, and they are always looking to trade back in order for them to fill holes on the interior of the offensive line, defensive line, and receiving corps. They added two solid if unspectacular interior linemen in the first 33 picks, clearly starting them from day 1. The team went after 3 defensive tackles and 3 blocking wide receivers late as well, and then another guard for good measure. The secret gem of the class though may be Adderly, who will likely start from day 1 and could punch well above his weight in Madden games. The biggest boon from this draft class though was that a lot of these players went to wonderful situations for them. This is a solid draft and it filled a ton of needs but it wasn’t spectacular. Nice job by the Fins in adding depth which was extremely necessary. 

Overall Grade: B

BUFFALO BILLS

1(10) LB Devin Bush (Michigan) 1(10) Pittsburgh

Well it is a lot easier when you have two first round picks and a high second in order to make trades but the Bills hit a homer here on their fist move. The draft only had two star inside linebackers and Buffalo had a gigantic hole at this spot. To stand pat and get Bush and then have him go to the Steelers where he will be a perfect player in that system. He’s going to win DROY in the 3GML universe and he could end up with 125 tackles. It wasn’t a hard decision, in fact it was super easy but making the layups is a huge key to success. Perfect pick.

1(27) CB Greedy Williams (LSU) 2(46) Cleveland

If draft pick 1 was perfect, draft pick two was perfect-er. Williams was the 7th rated player on my board and hands down the best cover corner in this class. Then you get the guy and he falls all the way to 46, knocking his pay down significantly and going to a team that will start him immediately. Buffalo had a potentially deadly hole at #2 corner and filled it with an elite player at the end of the first round for 2nd round money, freaking steal of the draft and the most important draft pick in 2019.

1(32) G/C Dalton Risner (Kansas St) 2(41) Denver

3 for 3 on day 1 here with Risner. I believe he will be the starting center for the Bills as a rookie as they had a glaring hole there with retirements and the fact that none of their other guys are good enough to play the pivot. Risner will start there and be rock solid. He lacks the upside you typically want in a round 1 guy but for a team with a massive hole and adding the 5th round option for someone with an exceptionally high floor, this also gets an A grade.

3(83) WR Hakeem Butler (Iowa St) 4(103) Arizona
I think Butler projects as a number 2 or 4 wide receiver in the league but his upside is huge. I would have preferred Buffalo grab someone who could have played the slot here as now JuJu will have to move inside more often this next season. But adding a developmental player with the upside that Butler has this late in the draft, and then have him go to an offense that features wide receivers was huge, he fell into a perfect place for him as well. This has bust potential but also major boom potential, I lean toward boom.

4(113) DE Charles Omenihu (Texas) 5(161) Houston

Wonderful selection here for someone who can play 43 defensive end or 3 technique if you want to go NASCAR package on 3rd down. Omenihu is long and physical and him falling to Houston means he could start games as early as his rookie year. He had a 2nd round grade and went in the 5th, perfect depth grab late.

5(144) T David Edwards (Wisconsin) 5(169) Los Angeles Rams

Solid football player who i’m not sure where he’s going to play. I think he’s someone who may never see a snap for the Bills but he has a chance to develop in real life and he compares a lot to the Rams current right tackle. Smart pickup here late.

6 (197) TE Alize Mack (Notre Dame) 7 (231) New Orleans

He went to a good team and the Bills needed depth at tight end. He could get cut or he could be their 4th tight end, they didn’t need another player so he’s a “spaghetti pick” throw it against the wall and maybe he turns into something. The Saints need depth there so if he makes the team you hang onto him, if he doesn’t he’s practice squad, other than paying him the dead money if you cut him, this was very little risk.

DRAFT RECAP
This was the best draft in the 3GML universe. Granted having a lot of early picks and the draft capital that they had with the CPU trades made this easier, you still have to make the selections and they killed this draft. Bush and Williams were stars at major positions of need and Risner is maybe a top 5 safest prospects in this class. To add all 3 would have been enough to secure an A without a doubt. Throw in a potential high risk high reward wide receiver who fell to a great spot, a potential starting defensive end on day 3 and you get an almost perfect draft. If the Bills win a super bowl this season, it will likely be because the 3 guys they drafted this weekend all started and played up to their potential as rookies. 

Overall Grade: A 

NEW YORK JETS

2(53) WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Stanford) 2(57) Philadelphia

Well the team needed receiver help in a bad way and although JJ doesn’t appear to have the ceiling of a number 1, he projects to be a very solid second option in the league. The value here felt really good and he went to an awesome situation in Philly. Solid pick and filled a need.

2(57) RB David Montgomery (Iowa St) 3(73) Chicago

Here might be your OROY in the 3GML universe as the Jets were set up to be terrible at running back and added someone who went to the perfect situation at a discount to the Bears. Montgomery is going to start immediately and his ability to block, break tackles, and catch the ball is perfect for the Game scheme. His Madden upside though is somewhat limited in that he lacks speed, the most important thing in the 3GML universe.

2(63) TE Jace Sternberger (Texas A&M) 3(75) Green Bay

This was a solid pick before he went to Green Bay but afterward it looked brilliant. The Jets believe strongly in Demetrius Harris and reiterated after the draft that Harris is the starter but Sternberger’s ability to catch and run past linebackers can’t be ignored. Now in the team’s two tight end sets they have a legit weapon next to Harris.

3(89) T Yodny Cajuste (West Virginia) 3(101) New England

Someone I had a super high grade on fell into the perfect scenario with New England. It’s tough to grasp why you’d use a 3rd round pick on someone who might not start for two seasons but the Jets added a valuable pick here and took one of only a handful of players who can play left tackle in the league. 

4(105) OLB Christian Miller (Alabama) 4(115) Carolina

Maybe the sneakiest good pick in the 2019 class is Miller here at 105 to New York. The team is going to a hybrid defense and Miller is an explosive pass rusher who also can drop into coverage. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting for the Jets at outside linebacker, with NYJ GM saying after the draft, he’s the frontrunner at this point. If he starts as a rookie and plays like he can, this could be one of the 2 or 3 steals of the class.

4(111) S Deionte Thompson (Alabama) 5(139) Arizona

The knee issue must be super serious because he’s a 2nd rounder who fell to the 5th in the real draft. Thompson is a tremendous center fielder and he could end up being a really solid player back there. Yet another guy who likely won’t play at all as a rookie except on special teams but Thompson going to Arizona means he could play in real football and develop while he sits for the Jets. It’s likely he starts for them at free safety in year two, really good value pick.

5(170) WR Darius Slayton (Auburn) 5(171) New York Giants

A burner who may or may not stick, I understand the selection though. The Giants needed speed so there’s a shot he could end up playing in real football and developing. The thing is though the Jets had so little talent at WR that he won’t get cut regardless. Decent move.

6(194) CB Jordan Brown (SDSU) 7(223) Cincinnati

Not a lot of talent left on the board but after the top 4 corners for the Jets they were pretty far behind. Brown has a ton of talent but really needs to hone his skills, if Cincy keeps him on the roster, he could turn into a good player by year 3.

6(196) TE Isaac Nauta (Georgia) 7(224) Detroit

Solid player who isn’t spectacular. He projects as a solid 3rd tight end and the Jets were looking for that role after grabbing Sternberger. He went to a nice situation in Detroit as their 3rd tight end.

7(217) LB Tevon Coney (Notre Dame) UDFA Oakland

He’ll stick and he’ll be solid. The Jets are completely depthless at inside linebacker and so worst case scenario Coney can come in and play a handful of snaps if someone gets hurt. Analytically he was great for Notre Dame but we’ll see if he can stick in Oakland.

DRAFT RECAP
I didn’t add trades and all that on here but for a comparison sake, the Jets did add essentially Xavien Howard, Vonn Bell, and a 3rd next year in addition to what they got here but for that I will leave that out. Here what they did was fill holes with high floor low upside guys at positions of need. Montgomery could be exceptionally productive in the 3GML universe as a rookie as he’ll get 250 touches if he stays healthy at least. It’s a very solid draft but there’s little upside here as the team looked desperate to acquire quality depth. Next season they will have to take some swings but this made sense in year 1 of a rebuild. 

Overall Grade: B

LEAGUE NOTES
The Bills and Patriots had a lot of draft capital and took advantage of it. The Bills took more risks and the Patriots passing on Josh Allen were the two biggest differences in those two drafts but to be hones they were both outstanding. The Bills won the draft and walk away feeling like they are in the drivers seat for as long as Rodgers is there and healthy. The Dolphins and Jets needed to add depth badly and both did a very admirable job of doing so. Without the high end picks that the others had they had to build solid foundations before taking swings and both GM’s did exactly what they should have done. Overall this division could not have done much better than they did. One of the unsung things of this draft that became clear afterward was that New England wanted to become more versatile to play matchups and they did it quietly but super efficiently, it could pay huge dividends down the road. All four teams are better now than they were 3 days ago.






Friday, April 26, 2019

3GML NFL Draft - Day one recap and questions

Thoughts on the first round of the 2019 3GML Draft.
1. The Bills hit this out of the park. They added the 6th best player in the draft in Greedy Williams at a MAJOR position of need at the cornerback spot, he immediately starts for them. He’ll be better as a Madden player than in real life as well, as his traits translate super well. Devin Bush is the exact same type of player. He has tremendous speed and another position of need. Risner with 33 made sense for them because he had value as the 13th rated player in the class and someone who can play any position on the line is smart. He also traded ahead of the champs who would have clearly been interested there.

2. New England was rock solid and did what they had to do. They could use a versatile edge player and they were very high on Burns. While some question his size in holding up against the run, his speed and bend around the edge was coveted. He will pair up very nicely for the next 4-5 seasons with Bradley Chubb and his toughness. Adding a nice player with proper value in Murphy made sense as well, although likely this means New England will be going more zone heavy in the future. Both players filled positions of need. 

3. Miami does what Miami does and added value in rounds 2-4 where they seem to feel the most comfortable. Adding additional picks in what is widely seen as a poor draft and grabbing an extra 3rd in 2020 was a wise decision. McCoy wasn’t rated as highly on my board as others but the team needed a pivot and adding the versatile McCoy made sense. It also kept him off the Bills who now will have to play someone out of position at center next season. You’re always trying to hurt in division.

4. The Jets were “going Abram” at 28 per sources if they stayed there but the trade back left them without a pick on Thursday. Abram would have been available but you have to give credit to the Jets brass of sticking with the teams’ philosophy. Now they will be insanely busy from picks 53,57,65, and 68 tomorrow all coming in a hurry, they have to get at least 3 of them right.

5. Big questions still arise moving into tonight and beyond. Can Risner make the move to center for Buffalo next season? New England got good pieces and they are essentially second on the board, after missing out on Risner do they grab Cody Ford or Jawaan Taylor? Does someone trade ahead of them to land one of them? Miami is content to trade back but with 4 picks tomorrow and 3 4th rounders they have to make a splash. New York is under a new identity now, but they have some serious roster holes that need plugging if they have any chance to shock the world in 2019. Do they reach for need or stay as patient as they did on day 1?