Every season each team has a variety of outcomes for their season that are usually dependent on a bounce of the ball or a player taking a leap forward or backward. Injuries play the biggest role in each football season and typically it leads to a team being knocked out of the running. The NFL season truly is a war of attrition and it plays the biggest factor in whether a team is getting their name etched on a plaque, or simply enjoying the spoils of a 15-1 season and then blowing the goddamn team up ala the Jets and their temperamental GM. This article is about how each team could conceivably win the Super Bowl and also how each of these teams could miss the playoffs. FPI projections are included to give an analytical possibility to all things from your friends at tbhague.
We’ll start with the favorites and the defending champion, New England Patriots.
Super Bowl odds: 13.2% (#1 in the NFL)
The Patriots go into this season with the best odds to win the title. They have arguably the best team on paper, a serious upgrade at quarterback with Andrew Luck, and they just added a top 3 left tackle in Trent Williams. The team has quality depth, a ton of high end players, and clearly the capacity to win the big game as they upset some AFC East foes and won the title last year on the arm of a backup quarterback who can’t even play quarterback for the fucking Giants in real life. Clearly they are adaptable. You add to that the fact they have a tremendous duo at safety, Alvin Kamara and Julio Jones at the skill positions, and a shutdown corner in Marshon Lattimore and you have more superstars on this roster than any other.
To win the Super Bowl for them is a relatively straight forward thing. They have to survive a gauntlet in the AFC East and having to play a tougher schedule than most, but they should be favored in almost all of their games. The team can simply overwhelm mediocre teams with its star power and then lean on their X factor players when the games get close. Their explosiveness means they are never out of a game and they have enough big play guys on defense to play stopper when it gets down to it.
The team goes 12-4 including 4-2 in division to win the AFC East behind Andrew Luck playing 15 games and Julio Jones leading the NFL in yardage, touchdowns, and new guaranteed money in a contract. Ronald Darby plays well enough opposite Lattimore and Derwin James establishes himself as a potential DPOY. They generate just enough pressure with Lawson and Brian Burns might be a revelation as a pass rusher and dropping into coverage. Kamara and Lindsay give the team balance and Tyler Boyd racks up 900+ yards and 10 touchdowns as the team rolls to a first round bye.
The team meets up with familiar foe round 2 of the playoffs in the Bills and while the game was testy early, the ground game of the Pats was a bit stronger than Buffalo. It looks like the defensive tackles in New England caused some problems for the Bills and down the stretch in what was a tough matchup the Pats got a huge downfield play from Julio Jones to break the game open. Derwin James tackled Todd Gurley a yard short of first down and the Pats hold on for the win in a barn burner.
The Pats get a bit lucky as Miami gets beat by Tennessee in the opposite side of the bracket and the Pats smother Mariota in a 27-10 shellacking of the Titans. Leading them to a very difficult game against the #2 rated team heading into the season in FPI rankings the Eagles. The game is tight throughout but the star power of the Pats breaks through with Kamara gaining traction into the 3rd quarter. After a Carson Wentz pick to Trevathan to start the 4th the Pats stretch their lead to ten on a 2nd Kamara touchdown run and win the Super Bowl, hanging on to beat Philly 31-28 after recovering a late onside kick.
How the Patriots miss the playoffs: 5.23% according to FPI (2nd lowest in NFL)
The Patriots have almost the best odds to make the playoffs of anyone at an astounding 94.7% rate according to FPI. However there is a chance that they don’t make it and it requires some injury issues and a special teams unit that isn’t great, as well as some players not stepping into key roles.
The season starts well but the Pats have some kicking game struggles as well as an issue covering opposite Lattimore. Ju’wuan James is only okay at tight tackle and his hits and sacks start to take a toll on the line and the running game. After 6 games the Pats are 4-2 and looking good but in week 7 the magic stops. James gives up a speed rush and Luck is lost for 8 weeks with a broken collarbone and the team has to move onto its backup for a tough stretch. In an exceptionally difficult division this might be a problem.
The GREAT Kyle Lauletta comes back to earth after his Sherman like march to a championship last season and struggles to move the ball effectively. His picks start to add up and through a difficult stretch in the season the team isn’t playing well. Lattimore is lost for a game and Julio’s constant foot injuries drops him for a couple of weeks as well. Darby’s play struggles in his absence and without much of a pass rush other than Lawson, the Pats defense can’t hold teams down forever. They struggle for a 3-5 record through that slate, putting them to 7-7 through 14 weeks. A win in week 15 was huge to get them to 8-7 and while they try to push through the injuries and struggles weren’t enough that they miss a couple of field goals in week 17 and a pair of Luck interceptions coupled with those missed field goals prove to much with the Patriots ending the season a disappointing 8-8.
Buffalo Bills
Odds to win the Super Bowl (11.12% 3rd best in the NFL)
The Bills are an awesome football team who is one of only 3 team with better than an 8.5% chance to win the Super Bowl this year, along with Philly and the Pats. The team has an absolute stud at quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, the game’s best running back when healthy in Gurley, a lot of weapons in the passing game, a potential DPOY candidate in Garrett, and the best 3GML player of all time in Geno Atkins. These super stars in themselves give the team a great chance to win, you add to that a quality offensive line, nice pieces in the secondary, and quality young pieces spread throughout and you get a surefire star studded team that can win the championship. And according to FPI the Bills have the lineup and potential to do just that.
After a very solid season from Aaron Rodgers, who played in 14 games and tossed for 35 touchdowns against only 8 picks, he wins MVP to give it to a quarterback for the first time. While Gurley wasn’t dominant throughout the season, he made his share of big time runs and stayed on the field for about 275 touches. His backups came in and played well in his stead, particularly Damien Williams whose 6.7 yards per carry paced the league.
On the defensive side of the ball Garrett dominated from the outset, earning 3 sacks in week 1 against the Jets and barely slowing down to lead the league with 19 and 22 tackles for loss. He won the DPOY award, for which he is favored coming into the season, and was one of 5 players elected to the all league team from the defense. A defense that finished 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed and played solid consistent football all year.
Dalton Risner was up for the challenge at center, even getting an all league vote for the spot. The team had no issue opposite Casey Hayward who bounced back from a subpar 3GML season a year ago to play good football this year. Devin Bush racked up almost 100 tackles and made big plays and the team simply stayed healthy enough to roll through the division. After splitting with New England and losing a tough one to Cleveland, the 4th best FPI team, the Bills rested their starters in week 17 and easily walked into a bye at 13-3.
In the second round they faced a tough Dolphins team but Brissett let them down and after 2 interceptions and a plethora of outside runs that couldn’t’ work against the speed of the Buffalo defense, the Bills picked up speed. A huge game from JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose underrated 1200 yard season broke out in a huge playoff run, gave the Bills a 14-6 lead. Soon after a second touchdown from JuJu against an overmatched Bradberry led the Bills to a win.
In the AFC Championship the game was tight against the pesky Browns. While Mayfield played great, he was matched by Rodgers, whose need for a championship was so intense that at times he ran the ball, setting a season high with 44 rushing yards in the game, including a 3rd and goal from the 7 that will go down in league lore. Rodgers’ dagger late to Todd Gurley on a Texas route for a touchdown sealed a shootout as a Mayfield throw to OBJ was picked off by Adrian Amos and the Bills kneeled for a 38-27 win.
In the Super Bowl the Bills were matched up with an interesting team in the Falcons. No one expected them here and yet they made big plays all game long. Vic Beasley came back to play great football and the Falcons 8-7-1 record snuck them into the playoffs. Early in the game it was tough sledding for both teams and field goals were all they could muster in the first quarter. The game swung completely in quarter number two when rookie Greedy Williams took a pass intending for Calvin Ridley and took it 55 yards for a score to break the game open. The Falcons fought back but Buffalo was just too strong for the tough Atlanta team. After a Devonta Freeman fumble was picked up at midfield by Atkins, thus cementing his fame as the GOAT, Rodgers wasted no time in dealing a strike to the star of the playoffs in Smith Schuster for a 38 yard gain and a slant to Brandin Cooks iced it. The Bills won 26-13 in a game that wasn’t that close to get Rodgers and the Bills their second 3GML Title and Rodgers a legitimate claim to be in the Hall of Fame for the league.
HOW THEY MISS THE PLAYOFFS (8.54%)
The team likely will not miss the playoffs as they have the 4th best odds to make them of every team in the NFL. The team is pretty loaded top to bottom but their are some holes that FPI has noticed that could cause concern. The biggest is they play 6 tough division games and being the 4th team in the division could mean you’re good, just not good enough.
Rodgers play at the start of the season was very good, but the team lost a heartbreaker in week 1 to a Jets team that is better than people think. Garrett was dominating games but Greedy Williams was getting abused at the second corner spot and Casey Hewyard’s lapses early in the year last season come back to bite the Bills early in the year. Risner’s struggles to move the pile up front as a rookie come into play too as the Bills start an okay but not great 2-2.
In week 5 is when things change though. A rain game creates mayhem as the Bills drop a game with 4 fumbles, a blocked punt, and two missed kicks in a game they should have won. A CPU donkey punch puts them at 2-3 and in a bit of trouble. A 3 game injury to Garrett causes some problems for a team with good but not great pass rushers behind him. Rodgers is continuing to play well but Gurley can’t find much room on the line to run through and hasn’t shown the big play abiilty he usually does, and in week 7 he goes down with a 2 week injury, something that happens throughout the year.
The team fights like hell and gets to the midway point at 4-4 with a legit shot at the playoffs but in week 9 Risner gets pummeled and Rodgers tears his pec, knocking him out for the year. RG3 comes in and simply doesn’t have the skills to carry a roster with a good but not great and almost alway hurt Gurley. Greedy has consistently been a problem and it continues with him getting torched. Devin Bush has flashed but misses too many tackles and only getting occasional pass rush from the side opposite Garrett the team can’t get enough push. They have so much damn talent and get so many big plays they stay in it right until the end though. But even with a really solid push at the end the team gets to 8-8, just one game out of the playoffs.
New York Jets
Championship odds (5.9%) 13th in the NFL
The Jets likely won’t be winning any championship this year but they are better than almost anyone would like to admit at this point. The recent additions of Eric Berry (86), Mike Daniel (90), Jeremy Parnell (76), and Kenny Stills (84) shored up the teams only real areas of true weakness. While going into this season with the leagues 26th rated quarterback isn’t ideal, everyone knows Darnold can really sling it. Their odds went from 1.36% 3 weeks ago to 4 times that now.
Darnold throws 17 interceptions but his 35 touchdowns make up for it, as he finishes 2nd in the AFC in TD tosses, including 11 to first team all league receiver Kenny Stills. The trio of running backs all averaged around 4.5 yards per carry and David Montgomery’s redzone work had him get the rookie of the year on offense despite just 900 scrimmage yards. Clowney was a complete star during the season playing 88% of the teams snaps and wracking up 31 tackles for loss. Howard’s 6 picks led the AFC East and the team got solid productivity out of an overachieving linebacking group. Darron Lee ends up winning the Orson Charles award after getting an absurd 133 tackles, including a monster hit on Andrew Luck that knocking him out for 3 games.
The Jets figure out how to get through an absolutely brutal first 6 games at 3-3 and fairly unscathed injury wise. Darnold has made some huge throws along with major mistakes, throwing 4 pick 6’s in the teams first 6 games. That said though, the monster that is the Clowney, Daniels, Flowers trio wreaks enough havoc and a dynamic running game has New York in the fight through 6 weeks.
A couple of huge throws from Darnold the next 4 games have the Jets making a push, and the underrated Xavien Howard grabs a pick 6 in game 11 to push the upstart Jets to 7-4. After a disappointing loss in week 12 the Jets start to make a late season surge behind Darnold and its nasty defensive line. The team wins 3 of its last 4 games to get to 10-6 and make the playoffs.
In the playoffs first week the team travels back to Buffalo to play the Bills in the 3-6 matchup. Buffalo starts the game fast with a touchdown on its opening drive and after a Darnold pick to Greedy Williams the Bills look to start the blowout. However, Trey Flowers gets a sack to push the Bills back and the field goal goes wide right giving the Jets a shot. After a big Duke Johnson run and a Demetrius Harris slant route, the bomb to Robby Anderson ties it up. After a brutal back and forth with 3 lead changes the game goes into the 4th quarter. Rodgers is slinging the ball so well that it looks like it will be whoever gets it last, but a Risner misstep on the line and Mike Daniels comes through pelting Rodgers and forcing a fumble that’s picked up by an underrated Haason Reddick. The Jets burn the clock down and Jason Meyers, who was clutch all seaosn knocks through the 37 harder to send New York to the final 8.
Patrick Mahomes was waiting for the Jets in Arrowhead and the Jets came into the game at -8.5 underdogs. That however, was not how this game was going to go. In a game that saw Patrick Mahomes sacked 7 times, the Chiefs simply couldn’t figure out how to get much going. The Jets played dime the entire game, doubling Kelce and sometimes putting three guys on Tyreke Hill. The Jets offense was stagnant but a solid game out of the backfield from Kalan Ballage catching the ball and Quincy Enunwa picked up a handful of 3rd down conversions to allow the Jets to ball control offense the Chiefs to a 19-13 win.
The AFC title game saw the Pats against the Jets in a game where New York was again the underdog but the Pats were without Andrew Luck and this time Kyle Lauletta couldn’t get out of his own way. Despite a run heavy approach that kept it close throughout the first half, the Jets made a few big plays in the passing game and Lauletta’s pick 6 to Jason Verrett, who played all 16 games for the first time since he was 11 years old, the game was over.
The Super Bowl was a matchup of the Cowboys vs the Jets. Brady was looking for his 7th ring but simply didn’t deliver consistently. While he moved the ball the Cowboys would bog down into the redone and Elliott was held in check by the run stuffers of New York. Darnold played his best game of the season and threw for 260 first half yards, including a dart to rookie Jace Sternberger for a 33 yard touchdown with 10 seconds to go until halftime. The Jets ball control offense and strong offensive line was too much and while Brady found a second Half groove, settling for four field goals cost them the game. A 34-26 win for New York completed the blowup and rebuild season and created a Cinderella story for the ages.
HOW THE JETS MISS THE PLAYOFFS: 39.5% Chance
So in about 40% of scenarios the Jets don’t make the playoffs. It makes some sense but this number was 78% just two weeks ago so they are a lot better football team now.
The team just has an absolutely brutal first 6 weeks of the season and after starting 2-4 heading into week 8 after a week 4 bye the team has to show signs of life in order to not go into fire sale mode. After another injury to the wide receiving corps with Enunwa going down the team plays Duke Johnson in the slot, forcing David Montgomery to touch the ball 25 times per game. The team struggles to move the ball and the 2-4 start is probably the best they could have hoped for.
In week 8 the team manages to snag a necessary win but management is up in the air about whether to move forward with this roster. In a harebrained moved they split the difference, sending Mike Daniels away to save 4.5 million in cap rollover next year and adding a 5th round pick in the process. The team loses its biggest strength, which is stopping the run, and hedges its bet on the playoffs.
The team plays okay however despite this. Verrett gets injured again in week 9 though and misses the remainder of the year, forcing an ill equipped but tough Vonn Bell into slot duties. Darnold’s turnovers become a real problem though and the team loses in its 10th game to a terrible team dropping to 4-6. After a tough battle gets them to 5-7 after another 3 interception game from Darnold the major injury hits with Avery Williamson lost for the last 4 weeks. The team limps in with injuries and turnover issues to a 7-9 record and didn’t even turn those 1 year rentals into picks which should have been the plan. The season is essentially a lost one for the Jets whose brutal schedule and risk taking quarterback were too much to overcome in year 5 of the 3GML.
Miami Dolphins
Odds to win the Super Bowl (4.18% 19th best in the NFL)
The Dolphins have the 4th best odds to win the Super Bowl but it’s not that far fetched. The team has a plethora of underrated talent, a super star tight end, a gameplay that comes together every week, and an ultra talented and versatile secondary. While it’s not likely the Fins hoist their second Lombardi this season, this is the scenario where they do.
Jacoby Brisset plays the best complementary quarterbacking we’ve seen since Trent Dilfer in 2000 with Tampa Bay, only throwing 5 interceptions all season in leading his team. While everyone expects a run first approach here, Brissett ends up throwing for 3300 yards and 23 touchdowns. The run game sets up the pass however, with the Fins leading the NFL in yards rushing. Albert Wilson hits 6 runs of 40 yards or more while the inside duo of Ingram and Fournette set the team up with the 4th highest 3rd down conversion rate in the league.
George Kittle finishes 4th in MVP voting with 14 touchdowns and flashes his incredible ability weekly. The offensive line gives up quite a few sacks here and there but the team’s lack of turnovers and consistent approach leads to a solid record of 6-4 through 10 games. After an injury to Aaron Rodgers opened up the division a bit, the Dolphins push hard at the end. A week 11 rain game where their ground and pound attack decimated their opponent and a week 12 game where 2 Jamal Adams picks finished it off they are the surprise of the league at 8-4.
A split of their next two puts them in great position at 9-5, but two more wins could earn them a bye in the 2nd position. Brissett plays his best game of the year, dialing up big time throws including a 44 yard bomb to Kittle, and Cam Meredith’s resurgence continued with 2 big 3rd down conversions. Laremy Tunsil finally allowed his first sack of the season in this game but otherwise he may have played a flawless left tackle. Big sacks by Whitney Mercilus and a redzone strip sack by Vernon iced the game and a week 17 drubbing of a team resting its starters lead to an insane 11-5 record and a first round bye.
In round 2 of the playoffs the Fins played the Chargers in a tough matchup. Yoey Bosa, last year’s 3GML MVP, had 2 sacks in the first quarter but a more conservative game plan started to take place. While the Chargers rushed out to a 17-7 halftime lead, a 32 yard run from Fournette to star the second half created some momentum. A 40 yard field goal from Matt Bryant cut into the lead. The biggest play of the season was about to come as Phillip Rivers threw an ill advised pass into the flat resulting in a pick 6 for Minkah Fitzpatrick, his 2nd of the season. His nastiness defensively led to a 2nd place in MVP voting for the year. The Chargers struggled to move the football after that, with a series of blitzes and stuffed runs resulting in no second half points for LA. A conservative approach lent itself to a pair of field goals until midway through the 4th quarter when Mike Gesicki made an appearance with a 58 yard catch and run touchdown to put Miami into the AFC Championship game against the Bills.
Buffalo was the 1 seed and had been unflappable all season long. This game was a bit different as the rain fell Hard and early and the normally stingy Buffalo defense struggled to contain the inside power of Miami. In a back and forth affair that saw little scoring through the first half, a big play by Brissett actually turned out to be the difference. Devin Bush broke through the line on a 3rd and 12 play midway through the 3rd when Brisett shrugged him off and fired a missile to Cameron Meredith, whose leaping grab over Casey Hayward for a 25 yard gain changed everything. The next 3 passes were completed and a 4 yard off tackle touchdown for Mark Ingram was the ice breaker. While Rodgers was conservative and solid and didn’t turn It over, the team couldn’t create enough big plays and for the first time all season they didn’t break 20 points. The Fins power attack held on for a 20-16 upset.
The Saints came a calling in the Super Bowl with Drew Brees wanting to ride off into the sunset, but it wasn’t to be. Michael Thomas was a serious problem all game long, and he won the Super Bowl MVP on the losing team for only the second time ever. His 210 yards was ridiculous but the rest of the Saints attack couldn’t muster up much. A huge game from Albert Wilson was the big surprise as the burner picked up a 22 yard run and a 29 yard run early in the game and his toughness and grit led him over 100 yards for only the 4th time all year. Fournette routinely added tough yards, although Cam Jordan didn’t let a lot go outside his side. The big play in the game though happened when Desmond King picked off a tipped pass and returned it inside the 10 yardline. Two plays later Wilson took a pitch and scored putting the Fins up 13-10 before the half.
In the second half, the Saints tried too hard to run the ball inside and Leonard Williams was having none of it. A couple of TFL’s from Jerome Baker and some 3rd down conversions that were caught by Thomas short of the sticks led to 3 straight Saint punts. That was more than enough for the Dolphins offense who pounded away for 2 field goals moving it to 19-10 with 6 minutes to go in the game. Brees found Thomas three plays in a row but the drive bogged down and in a strange decision to go for it on 4th down the Dolphins blitz worked to perfection. Minkah darted in between center and guard and knocked the ball loose. The Saints picked it up but the Fins were hosting the Lombardi. A 22-10 final happened after a 29 yard field goal on that drive sealed it up and Miami was your champion.
HOW THE FINS MISS THE PLAYOFFS (57% of the time 23rd in the NFL)
They just play in the most ridiculous division ever and while the team has some talent, Brissett is the 31st rated starter at quarterback.
The team simply couldn’t get enough victories to make this happen. Brissett played fine but missed too many open receivers and while they wanted to play conservatively, teams loaded up to stop the run. The offensive line was fine but rookie center Erik McCoy couldn’t handle the defensive tackles in the AFC East and the Fins struggled to a 1-5 in division record. On defense, the secondary was very good and while the team got a ton of interceptions they also allowed quite a few rushing yards and a handful of big running plays.
Mercilus, Vernon, and Williams were all solid during the year but none invoked any fear. Mercilus missed 5 games with an injury at the end of the season and Vernon ended the year with a decent 8 sacks. The linebackers missed too many tackles and it allowed a frustrating amount of conversions. The lack of speed in the secondary also created problems for big play receivers and while the team battled hard and kept a lot of games close the lack of fire power at receiver ended up costing Miami.
Kittle was good but constantly double teamed, and Meredith only made it 9 games before getting hurt for the year. It simply got overwhelmed with talent and while the Fins played hard and made progress, they mustered a 7-9 record and watched the postseason from home.
