Consensus Big Board Draft Grades

With the 3GML draft still in our rearview mirror, I thought I’d take a stab at providing some draft grades.  Tyler recently evaluated the 3GML team drafts within the context of the 3GML world, looking at team need, scheme fit, and value, with in-depth interviews of the 3GML general managers.  There is certain insight that can only be provided through a qualitative analysis of each team’s situation in detail, and Tyler did an excellent job with his analysis.  To complement his work, I thought I’d take a step back and look at the 3GML draft in the context of real NFL teams using a broader analytical approach.  

There was a multitude of directions I could take this – I opted for the perhaps the simplest, being still a novice in the analytics world.  I decided grades would be based on draft pick value.  Specifically, I chose to look at the value of a team’s pick versus the value of a player’s estimated draft pick (EDP), or the pick where the player is expected to be drafted at / valued at versus the rest of the draft class.  For instance, if Player A’s EDP is 15 overall, and he is drafted by a team at 20 overall, this is good value.  But it had to be more than that, because if Player B is valued at 145 overall, and is drafted at 150 overall, that value is should not be equivalent to Player A’s.  Thus, I weighted each pick to its respective trade value based on the Jimmy Johnson (JJ) table (we can argue the validity of that table another time, but at the moment, we still use that table for 3GML trades). 

There are pros and cons to such an approach.  At minimum, it provides a baseline by which to grade every team’s draft using the same metrics.  However, such an approach is not situationally biased.  For instance, team needs are not factored in here.  If Chicago wants to take a TE, and the selection is good value based on EDP, it doesn’t matter if they already roster 8 TE’s – the value is in the pick.  Introducing team needs into the equation is difficult, and adds a tint of subjectivity to the analysis (who’s to say Chicago doesn’t need 9 TE’s? … that’s a joke I promise).  This approach also doesn’t currently factor in positional value; it is something that I hope to work more on in the future, but at present, I don’t have the historical draft and player performance data needed to objectively weight each position.  So for now, grades are determined by EDP value vs. draft pick value.

The Consensus Big Board

While EDP is a familiar term, it isn’t universal.  Someone has to establish a player’s EDP.  We all have Big Boards, but those are subjective.  I needed something objective.  Thankfully, the folks at The Athletic did the work for me.  They created a “Consensus Big Board,” aggregated from the rankings gathered across NFL Draft media analysts.  The last version they updated contains the work of 68 different evaluators and forecasters. I use those terms specifically, as they state, “one type of analyst, the ‘forecasters,’ tend to have much more access to NFL and college personnel, which gives them information about injury concerns, character, off-field issues and behind-the-scenes information that could change our understanding of a player one way or the other. The other group, the ‘evaluators,’ rely on public data — primarily college game film and advanced statistics.”  The Athletic creates a board for each.  They suggest the Forecaster Board better reflects the actual draft than the Evaluator Board, which should be no surprise given the information they are gathering.  However, the Evaluator Board, they claim, is better at projecting NFL success.  The Consensus Big Board is a combination of both the Forecaster and Evaluator Boards – ideally the best of both worlds.  Whether that is the case, only time will tell, but for the present, we can compare the performance of all 3 boards (Consensus, Evaluator, and Forecaster) to the actual draft position of players to see which is the best predictor of draft positions.

Establishing Board “Performance”

The first thing I looked at was the ranking of every drafted player on each board vs. their actual draft position.  The results, shown above, are perhaps unsurprising.  All boards were better at predicting players draft positions earlier in the draft than later, where there is significant scatter in the data.  I broke this down further by looking performance per round by board.

The figure above compares the distribution of each board’s EDP vs actual draft position by round using box plots.  Draft rounds are indicated by the dashed horizontal lines.  Unsurprisingly, the 1st and 2nd rounds are pretty tight. The distribution of EDP versus actual draft locations largely fall within their respective rounds, although the distributions are skewed.  The long tales at lower picks suggest several players were taken in the 1st and 2nd round with lower relative EDP (and yes, those outliers in Rd 1 are indeed Seattle’s new LB Jordyn Brooks).  By Round 3, the EDP spread from 1st round to 6th round value for all 3 boards (I don’t know if that is an indictment of the boards or the NFL front offices…).  Despite the spread, the median EDP remain within their respective rounds until the 6th round, at which time the Consensus Board appears to be the least accurate, while the Forecaster Board the most accurate at predicting pick location.  However, this is purely a qualitative assessment.

To put numbers on this, I fit linear models for each boards EDP vs. actual draft location.  Looking strictly at their ability to predict the actual draft location, the Consensus Big Board was best overall (R²=0.65, RMSE 40.6), followed closely by the Forecaster Board (R²=0.648, RMSE=40.9).  The Evaluator Board lowest (R²=0.625, RMSE 42.2), but that should be no surprise.  As we’ve established, the Forecaster Board is based on what people are hearing from teams, so, in theory, it should better reflect what teams will do on draft night.   It may seem odd on the surface that the Consensus Big Board performed the best then, since it is a combination of both the Forecaster Board and the Evaluator board.  However, think of it as the best of both worlds, averaging out the weaknesses in both the Forecaster and Evaluator Boards.  While I include all 3 boards in my following analysis, final grades are determined by the better preforming Consensus Big Board (CBB).

NFL and 3GML Overall Draft Performance

With an EDP board in hand, team picks can be compared to EDP to establish value.  Luckily, the folks at The Athletic also kept track of the 255 picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, and included it on their board, making my job easier.  All I had to do was establish the value for each pick based on JJ trade chart.  Now, Jimmy Johnson may have been a good coach, but he was no mathematician.  His chart follows an exponential decay curve, but he rounded them out to make them clean numbers.  Thus, they don’t follow a nice equation that I could use to ascribe pick value easily – I would have to enter 255 values in by hand, since the teams decided that they weren’t going to draft in order based on The Athletic Consensus Board and the actual picks were spread all over the board.  I wasn’t going to do this, and although there was a workaround that maintained the JJ values exactly (involving coding up a script to locate the picks and create a new array of pick values rearranged in the order of the actual picks on the Consensus Big Board), I took the easy way out and just fit a function to the JJ value chart (at R²=0.998 I think we can all live with that decision).  So pick values you see below won’t perfectly match what you had written down.  Blame Jimmy…and my laziness.  

I compared the player selected at each team’s pick (with corresponding JJ value) against the players’ respective EDP (and corresponding JJ value) on the 3 Big Boards to establish the value of each pick.  I totaled this up for each team, both in total points and percentage of original pick value.  To establish a grade, I repeated this, but then normalized the value difference between original pick value and player EDP value by the number of picks in the draft (255). What this does is set a baseline: if a team uses Pick 125 to pick a player with an EDP of 125, the score is zero, it is neither good nor bad value.  If they pick a player with an EDP above or below the actual pick value, the grade will be positive or negative and scaled based on the JJ value difference of the pick and EDP.  For example, the Miami Dolphins drafted OT Austin Jackson at Pick 18, but his Consensus Big Board EDP was 43, yielding a difference of 25 picks.  They went on later to pick G Solomon Kindley, a player with an EDP of 163, at pick 111, yielding a difference of 52 picks.  Their grade for the Jackson pick was -1.7 (bad), while their grade for the Kindley pick was only -0.2 (not that bad).  While the Kindley pick could be viewed as more of a reach by pick number, the value between Picks 111 and 163 (JJ = 47) is much less than the value between Picks 18 and 43 (JJ = 430).  Each team’s picks were graded as such and averaged to establish an Overall Draft Grade.  I repeated this entire process for the 3GML draft picks and compiled all of the grades and values into the table below to show how 3GML stacks up against the actual NFL front offices.

Teams are ranked by Overall Consensus Grade.  Since these numbers are not easily interpretable, I as established a GPA grade based on the Consensus Grade, and curved all GPA to the top grade (AZ Cardinals).  Again, the Consensus Grade encompasses all other aspects shown on this table (forecaster grade, evaluator grade, pick value above / below estimated draft position), but I split them out for your viewing pleasure.  One thing to note is the value that Buffalo got out of their draft with as little capital as they had (215.67% original value, vs. the poor value Seattle got out of their near league-average capital (32.78% original value).   In comparison, all 3GML teams got 96% or greater value from their picks, with the 3GML Texans maximizing their draft capital up to 162.2% of original value.  The table is fun to look at, so I won’t spend much time analyzing it here.  

3GML Breakout

Instead, let’s look at each 3GML GM’s picks and draft grade.  For each team, I broke out the board by pick and for fun, threw in the first 5 UDFA to see if we got any value there (all UDFA were ascribed pick 256 to keep it even between teams).  Each team is discussed below in alphabetical order, with best value, worst value, and overall grade discussed.  For simplicity, I did not factor in value for trades, assuming that the move up or down accounted for the value of the new pick.  Therefore, when I say “original pick value,” I mean the value of the final picks for each team.

Green Bay Packers

Best Value: Edge Zach Baun

The Packers waited until pick 57 to draft the CBB’s 32 ranked player.  Baun had to wait a little longer in real life to hear his named called (pick 74), but the Pack gladly snatched him up in the bottom of the 2nd.  Edge was also a need for the 3GML Packers, so the Packers found that sweet spot where value = need.  Baun turned out to be the best value of the 3GMLs draft filled with good value throughout.

Worst Value: QB Tua Tagovailoa RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I know the numbers say Tua Tagovailoa was the worst value, but I can’t get on board with that conclusion.  The picks are weighted by the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value chart, which means the jump from 3 to 5 is significant.  No one in their right mind would think it was “Bad Value” to take the 2nd best quarterback and 5th overall player at 3.  The value of the QB position would negate this, but as I discussed above, I haven’t yet determined how to weight these grades by positional value.  So instead, I’m choosing to ignore the data and look at what many analysts would say is bad positional value – drafting RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire at pick 34. The Chiefs snagged him at pick 32 in real life, prompting the 3GML Packer’s GM to trade up grab him.  Turns out just picking him at 34 was poor value.  Regardless, the 3GML Packers GM got his guy in Edwards-Helaire, who will contribute early, so the Pack can live with the value.

Overall Grade: B-

The Packers draft class netted a 2.6 GPA, equivalent to a B- on the curved grade scale.  Retaining 99.2% of their original draft value is impressive, especially considering they had the 2nd most original draft capital (Miami was 1st and only maintained 74.5% value).  This grade has them in a five-way tie for 16th with the Rams, Colts, 3GML Chargers, and Titans, or in other words, around league average grade.

Houston Texans

Best Value: WR Denzel Mims

Many had Mims projected in the first round, but he managed to slip into the waiting arms of the 3GML Texans at pick 56.  Mims wouldn’t have to wait much longer in real life, being picked by the NY Jets at 59.  The CBB had Mims ranked at pick 33, just outside of the 1st round, so snagging the 33st ranked player at 56 yielded excellent value.  The 3GML Texans GM will also tell you that his value was truly better than indicate here.

Worst Value: DT James Lynch

The 3GML Texans GM identified James Lynch as one of “his guys,” so I doubt he cares that, analytically, this was his worst value pick.  At only -0.2 CBB grade, the pick wasn’t much of a reach.  The Texans took Lynch at pick 88, when he was valued 13 picks lower by the CBB.   Either way, Lynch was viewed as a back of the 3rd round player, and that’s where the 3GML Texans snagged him.

Overall Grade: B

The 3GML Texans had an excellent draft, make no mistake, but entering with such little draft capital put them behind the other teams to begin with.  By increasing their draft capital by 162.2%, the Texans secured a 3.1 GPA, good for a solid B and tied for 8 overall with the Carolina Panthers.

Miami Dolphins

Best Value: OT Josh Jones

Everyone was confused by OT Josh Jones’s tumble down the draft boards, but the 3GML Dolphins GM didn’t mind.  He snagged the CBB’s 29th ranked player at pick 42, yielding the best value in their draft class.  Jones would wait until the Cardinals snagged him at pick 72 in real life, but the 3GML Dolphins don’t mind.  They got great tackle prospect for good value, and he landed in a great situation in real life.

Worst Value: QB Jalen Hurts

We are beginning to see a common theme amongst the 3GML draft picks.  The worst value for each team seems to be the “my guys,” and QB Jalen Hurts was the guy tabbed as the future starter of the 3GML Chargers by their GM.  The 3GML Dolphins picked Hurts at 31, but he was the 71st overall player on the CBB.  Hurts ultimately went earlier than that, as a surprise 2nd round pick (53) by the Eagles, suggesting that his value to NFL teams may be closer to where the 3GML Dolphins valued him than previously thought.  Either way, Hurts is in the new face of the 3GML Dolphins franchise.

Overall Grade: B-

The Dolphins’ GM always drafts his own way, but his own way was still good for a 2.6 GPA, tied for 16th with the Rams, Colts, Titans, and 3GML Packers.  Retaining 96% of their original draft capital, the Dolphins register a league average B- grade.

San Francisco 49ers

Best Value: CB Kristian Fulton

Perhaps a surprise, but the 3GML 49ers pick of CB Kristian Fulton at 54 was better value than WR Ceedee Lamb at pick 14 according to the CBB.  Fulton was the 28th ranked player by the CBB.  Fulton fell to pick 61 in real life, where the Titans gladly drafted him to replace the loss of Logan Ryan.  The 49ers didn’t necessarily need another CB, but Fulton was valued even higher than his CBB value by the 3GML 49ers GM, who gladly moved up to snag him at 54.

Worst Value: QB Jordan Love

This wasn’t a “my guy” pick by the 3GML 49ers GM, who made it clear he did not value Love enough to take him at pick 13.  Instead, the need to bring in young QB talent prompted the 3GML 49ers GM to gamble on the talent of Love at pick 26.  The CBB ranked Love at Pick 35, although he would go at pick 26 to the real Green Bay Packers, and the 3GML 49ers GM could not be happier with Love’s landing spot.

Overall Grade: A-

The 3GML 49ers managed to land a good value draft according to the CBB, ending up with a 3.6 GPA (A-) good for 4th in the league.  The 3GML 49ers GM isn’t shy about saying he approaches the draft similar to the CBB, accruing observations from many sources (although certainly not 68 sources like The Athletic!) and modifying his board based on scheme fit and personal preference.  According to the CBB, the 3GML 49ers approach paid off, at least in the short term.

Conclusions

This was my first foray into an analytical draft grade for the real and 3GML teams.  The results yielded interesting findings and in large part corroborate observations by many sources (particularly on the worst draft classes).  The shortcoming of the approach are also apparent, as positional value is required to temper the negative grading of QBs for instance.  I hope to have a method in place when the 2021 NFL Draft rolls around next year.  Regardless, the analytical draft grades highlight the 3GML GMs' draft acumen in the 2020 NFL Draft!

2020 3GML Draft Recap

There is not a GM or team builder in the universe who believes that the draft isn’t the ideal place for building a championship roster. Just last season, SD’s team dominated the competition by going 19-0, led by a superstar they drafted who set the NFL record for sacks, a slot receiver they added on day 2, and a rookie linebacker who led the team in tackles. You simply can not win in a big way without hitting on a large percentage of your draft picks. 

The 2020 NFL Draft was not the best or the deepest in recent memory, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be Hall of Fame players, Pro Bowlers, and dozens of quality starters. The members of the 3GML all had different approaches to the offseason, but all 4 teams massively improved their teams and set themselves up for the future over the last 3 days. Let’s go through and grade the 4 teams based on the draft ONLY, not the players they were able to acquire via picks, ahem OBJ. We also interviewed the 4 GM’s to get some insight into what they were thinking during their respective times on the clock. 

The following players that are listed are their draft slot, followed by their rating from TBHague. 

Green Bay Packers:

3. Tua Tugavaloa, QB Alabama (6th, 95 grade)

18. Justin Jefferson, WR LSU (9th, 91 grade)

34. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU (34th, 84 grade)

57. Zack Baun, LB Wisconsin (18th, 87 grade)

69. Bryce Hall, DB Virginia (44th, 83 grade)

91. Lucas Niang, OT TCU (39th, 83 grade)

103. Adam Trautman, TE Dayton (54th, 82 grade)

I’m going to be honest, this might be the best draft in 3GML history.  The Packers did an excellent job of not just adding high quality players, seven of the top 54 in the draft and three of the top 18. They also did excellent work in terms of adding high quality players in terms of overall grade with four 2nd round grades and three 1st rounders. The team came into the draft with 10 draft picks and were aggressive in moving up to go get players they had high targets on at positions of need. When the team felt like they were going to lose out on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, they packaged three picks to go get their guy. The team had a serious need at RB, with only one on the roster and absolutely pushed their chips into the center of the table.

SD “We knew there was going to be a run that round (at RB). We expect Clyde to contribute right away, and in a big way. We feel like we will be able to incorporate both Damien and Clyde into our offense in a meaningful way.” 

That said, it’s clear that despite this insanely productive draft, the most important player in this class is one that might not even play for a number of seasons. The Packers tried to walk the fine line of building for the future and adding players who can help right away. The big takeaway here was the Packers adding the Alabama lefty Tua Tagovailoa with the 3rd pick with elite players like Simmons, Brown, and Okudah still there. If Tua provides a seamless transition from a Hall of Fame to another superstar the Packers will have 2 decades of elite quarterback play. The big question is how Aaron Rodgers will handle this.

“This is a quarterback driven league,” SD said when asked about that dynamic. “Our philosophy is that it’s the most important position and you start your evaluations there every year. We anticipate more years with him ( Rodgers) under center. We were fortunate to get the number 3 overall pick after a winning season and felt we likely wouldn’t be picking this high again anytime soon with our roster. Tua will get to learn under the best while he heals up and learns the offense.”

It seems like the team is going to simply let that situation play out, and while it’s an interesting story line it’s pretty obvious that there isn’t a controversy there. That said, while the team is obviously Aaron’s right now, Tua looming over his shoulder while A-Rod ages, despite a 3GML MVP season last year, will always be a storyline to follow.

The other major piece to this draft of course is the other first rounder that the team took in Justin Jefferson. Jefferson was an elite prospect that TBHague had rated ahead of Henry Ruggs who was the first receiver taken. About Jefferson, TBHague wrote: 

“Jefferson has elite hands, is a top tier blocker, has plus size and speed, and good athleticism. He’s not going to blow you away as an athlete and it’s tough because he projects best as a slot but his floor is really high. At worst he’s a great slot receiver and a solid number 2 at best I think he’s someone who could be like a Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Davonte Adams type player. No way in hell would I let this guy leave round 1 and I would look to take him in the top 15.” 

Even if Jefferson is just the 3rd WR right now, he’s insanely productive and has an insanely high floor. The Packers played more three receivers sets than every team but the Rams and Chiefs last season and that position is essentially a guy who ends up playing 60 snaps per game. Adding him made a lot of sense as well with JuJu Smith-Schuster heading into the last year of his contract. 

SD commenting on JuJu and how he and Jefferson will compliment each other and whether Jefferson was a replacement. “We love what JuJu brings to our team, we needed another starter. Expect those conversations (extension) to heat up this summer.”

Zack Baun and Lucas Niang were excellent value picks even if they aren’t going to play right away or don’t have a perfect position in this team. Niang is a right tackle only and after spending big money on Bulaga he probably won’t see the field except for an injury. Baun was a bit of a strange schematic fit but he was an exceptional player at a wonderful value. I don’t know if he’s going to play Will, Mike, or a 43 End but he’s a great player who will eventually figure out how to get on the field in a meaningful way. The Trautman pick cost another couple picks but the team went out and grabbed one of the best tight ends, if not the best tight end in the class, at a major position of need. The player, need, and value was exceptional there and it was a great way to bookend their draft.

PACKERS GRADE: A+

In one of the absolutely best drafts that you could ever ask for SD set himself up very well, filling holes, finding value, adding depth, and potentially adding a franchise quarterback, the Packers won the draft. 

SD “We had our targets going in and went out and got them. We felt like we got better right now and in the future. Our goal is to make a Super Bowl, this roster gives us a very good chance to do that.  We are in a great situation now and will be in four years.”

I couldn’t agree more.

Miami Dolphins

27. AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa ( 35th, 84 grade)

31. Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma (90th, 76 grade)

42. Josh Jones, OT Houston (13th, 88 grade)

75. Amik Robertson, CB LA Tech (130th, 68 grade)

82. Curtis Weaver, Edge Boise St. (62nd, 80 grade)

85. Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota (69th, 79 grade)

95. Cameron Dantzler, CB Mississippi State (93rd, 76 grade)

103. Malik Harrison, LB Ohio State (75th, 78 grade)

In what was a draft that was eclectic, varied, and ultimately pretty damn successful, GM EP did things his way. Some people compare him to John Schneider in Seattle in that he simply goes after the players he wants that fits his scheme and doesn’t really care what anyone else does. It’s worked out insanely well in the past, landing late round superstars Desmond King and George Kittle. He may have done that exact thing again this season, going after his dudes, in his scheme. While some of the values were strange given where they were taken, overall he ended up with seven of the top 93 players in the class and six guys with grades in the top three rounds. He also may have found his quarterback of the future with the jaw dropping selection of Jalen Hurts in round one. While TBHague had a 3rd round grade on the Oklahoma star, the Dolphins went all in, with EP saying:

“We fell in love with his leadership and competitive spirit… he’s a leader. Cam’s our starter and Jalen can learn from an NFL MVP. We want both guys to be here for a long time together. Jalen is too talented to stay away form the field. He has already asked to play special teams as well; we’ll get him quite a few touches.” 

Never in a million years would you think about another team putting their first round rookie quarterback in on special teams packages but this is the Dolphins we’re talking about, and it’s amazing. Would I have done this? Absolutely no way, but he has a vision and simply goes for it. Whether he develops or not is going to be the major story of the Dolphins draft class. 

The other first round pick he had was a super high floor guy with a wonderful scheme fit at a position of need. This just made way too much sense and Epenesa was the perfect Dolphins player.  EP even mentioned, “ he was our number one target from day 1, and he was always going to be a Dolphin.”

Obviously the Dolphins are known for running the rock and playing a physical and versatile style of defense. He continued to build from the inside out with the selection of Josh Jones. He may have seemed a bit of a redundant selection after taking Cody Ford last season. Ford had his ups and downs on the outside though and the Jones pick was the best pick of the draft for LA. Jones was an insanely good value here, and was one of the last high end players still available in round 2. TBHague was enamored with him early in the draft process, with this blurb:

“Jones as a pass protector has a lot of traits to work with. He has great length and he uses his 6’7'' frame as well as any player in this class does. His feet are very quick and he rarely allows pressure, locking up and squaring up as well as you’ll see on a consistent basis. He sees defenders coming and does an above average job at passing people off and noticing rushers, and his ability to counter moves that oncoming rushers use is at a high level.” 

He’s not the prototypical power run blocker that EP goes after but he said, “We like high floor prospects and we feel like Joshua can be a 10+ year starter in the league at RT for us. We are set for a long time at o-line.”

Later in the draft the team did what it always does, adding high value players with Tyler Johnson, adding even more size to a wide receiver room with a ton of guys at 6’3 or taller. “Tyler was another guy we loved early in the process, (Tyler) can try to earn his place in the slot or try to play big for us.”

The also went bigger and physical on defense which is the typical way they go about things adding a long corner Cameron Dantzler and a thumping inside linebacker who fits what they love in Malik Harrison. The picks filled some needs as well as adding quality depth.

The biggest surprise outside of Jalen Hurts though was grabbing slot corner Amik Robertson early in the 3rd round. It seemed like a huge reach there but the team clearly loves tough corners with ball skills and again they wanted to go get their dude. EP said, “his effort every play personifies who we are. Look out for him.”

Look the team did a good job of going after the guys that they want. Jalen Hurts is going to be the story of this draft though for the Dolphins. If he turns into the type of guy who can manage the game and avoid turnovers like EP loves this will be a surprisingly wonderful pick. Adding high quality edge rushers in Curtis Weaver and especially the stud AJ Epenesa are exceptional schematic fits. He went out and just added quality players, and although the values were a little bit off, he did what he does. 

DOLPHINS GRADE: B

It was a solid draft but it was strange. He ended up adding  a lot of decent pieces but the values weren’t exactly where he should have probably gotten them.  Anytime you add 7 of the top 93 players in a draft, you did a good job. He also was able to add two high end starters and potentially the quarterback of the future. It was an assuredly EP draft, and to be honest, it’s pretty damn likely he gets high production from it, he usually does. 

San Francisco 49ERS

#14 WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (8th, 92 grade)

#26 QB Jordan Love, Utah St. (19th, 87 grade)

#54 CB Kristian Fulton, LSU (25th, 85 grade)

#94 DT Jordan Elliot, Missouri (59th, 80 grade)

#117 OT Prince Tega Wanogho, Auburn (99th, 75 grade)

#182 WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan (125th, 70 grade)

#204  RB Eno Benjamin, Arizona St. (129th, 68 grade)

The 49ers are pretty much always rock solid. They go into every single draft with a plan and they go about systematically accomplishing that plan. They went through this draft without a ton of capital except for those 2 first round picks but they ended up hitting a homerun in round 1. Adding the 8th best player in CeeDee Lamb at 14 was a coup, and then they sat still, finally pouncing up 4 spots to grab the qb of the future in the insanely talented Jordan Love. The 9ers had to have been at least considering taking Love at 13, instead they were able to trade back one spot and add Lamb, and STILL were able to grab Jordan Love at 26.

CD on potentially taking Jordan Love at 13. “He was always in play, but never at 13 like you all discussed, too much risk. But in the back end of the 1st, his upside trumps the risk. I figured hit was the opportunity, (to trade up,) very glad I did. He’ll redshirt his first season.”

When asking about whether or not Boyd is now expendable that the 49ers have three high end receivers, just like the Packers, CD scoffed at the idea. He’s an analytical GM to say the least and adding WR value is high on the analytical priority list. “Our system is less traditional with WR, it’s more about scheming RAC and moving players around. I think that both Boyd and Lamb can play inside and outside, I’d like to vary it up.” 

He mentioned being more versatile and multiple on offense a number of times, and despite adding a late round running back in the decent Eno Benjamin, they are right up against the contract window with superstar Alvin Kamara. But they won’t, “fall into the trap of massive extensions for RB, I’d love to keep him but I’m also practical.”

With all of their weapons, the 49ers have to feel like potentially the team to beat. Adding Lamb was a big add and someone who will help that team immediately. They also added a super high floor cornerback who can play both inside and outside. The team has their obvious number one in cornerback Marshon Lattimore, but having a versatile DB in Kristian Fulton was a really good addition. CD loves high floor guys who fill holes on his team and Fulton does just that at an exceptional value. Fulton was a borderline first round player and he fell to the back of the 2nd round, adding him and that position of need was a wonderful fit. 

The team did a good job of mixing high ceiling guys with high floor guys and Jordan Elliott in round 3 was certainly a high ceiling guy. The team needed an interior pass rusher as last year their sack total was the lowest in the 3GML. Losing Snacks and likely A’Shawn Robinson created a huge hole in that defensive line. Elliott has some issues with run stuffing but he could have gigantic upside as a pass rusher, where he got him made too much sense. I do think this team might have some problems defending the run though, despite arguably the most underrated linebacking corps in the NFL.

Tega Wonogho, Peoples-Jones, and Benjamin were athletic guys who could provide some special teams help. Wongoho could be a very high end swing tackle who could potentially kick inside at some point. I think he could turn into a quality player in time, and DPJ was a guy who was literally the number one rated player in his class coming out of high school, obviously a highly talented guy. The team added a depth running back in Benjamin which was a sneakily solid pick.

49ERS GRADE: B+

Look most drafts are pretty simple, you try to add three really quality players and hopefully you get some depth here and there as well. The team obviously accomplished that with Lamb as a potential Pro-bowl player, a high quality versatile DB in Kristian Fulton, and Jordan Love could be an insanely good quarterback, or a complete bust. Jordan Elliott could end up being a starter this season, despite the teams’ best intentions to not force guys into roles too early. The day 3 picks are all guys who have high upside but could also struggles to stay in the league. That said this draft is going to be graded on how his top 4 picks work out, if he can get one of those other 3 to become a good player or a contributor it will be a bonus. This draft could be really good, if Jordan Love reaches his potential, it could be a dynamic class.

Houston Texans

For a GM who spends more time working on, harping on the importance of, and has spent the majority of his tenure building through the draft, this offseason was a strange one. He shipped away a 1st, 2nd, next year 2nd, and two 5ths to go get some superstars in Beckham, Slay, and Linder. Adding 3 Pro Bowlers is always a good offseason, but it left the Texans woefully thin during the draft.  A year after trading out of round 1, their first pick wasn’t until 56 on Friday, and started with only five picks. They ended up adding a 3rd and a 6th next season and grabbed 7 players, patience was their ultimate virtue in this class.

#56 WR Denzel Mims, Baylor (10th, 90 grade)

#88 DT James Lynch, Baylor (40th, 83 grade)

#126 LB Troy Dye, Oregon (38th, 83 grade)

#139 C/G Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (65th, 79 grade)

#141 EDGE Trevis Gipson, Tulsa (120th, 72 grade)

#153 OT Hakeem Adeniji, Kansas (103rd, 73 grade)

#185 WR Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon St. (107th, 73 grade)

The Texans absolutely had to add some depth after going the superstar route in the trade market this offseason. The team needed some players, particularly on a thin defensive line and they went out and added some good value. With only one pick in the first 75, it was difficult to really do too much but the team added four extra selections in the next two drafts by trading back. That said the team got perhaps the steal of the draft with 10th rated Denzel Mims all the way down at pick 56. He’s a bit redundant with the burner Slayton and the Pro Bowler Beckham but this now gives the team some of the most dangerous downfield threats in football. When asked about what he liked in Mims TH was pretty effusive in his praise:

“He’s an absolute beast and a guy who can really help Lamar take an even bigger step forward than he did last year. We thought he was a top 10 player in the class and although he ran a small route tree at Baylor, when he went and posted a 6.66 3-cone we figured he could end up being that combination outside and inside guy and he’ll start the season as our slot and mix and match all over the place, we are beyond thrilled to have him.”

The pick of James Lynch surprised some people, but we liked his productivity at TBHague, and the fact he was a first team all American. He joined Biadasz as the two draftees from this team who were first team All Americans last season. Some people had Lynch as a late first or early second round pick and others had him in the 5th, the Texans grabbed him late in round 2. When asked where he would play in the scheme next season, TH stressed the versatility:

“He’s a guy we love because he can play all over the defensive front and we desperately needed depth there. We think he can play anywhere from the 1 to the 9 which is rare, especially for someone who weighs in at 290 pounds. James is just a super high motor productive guy. He’ll be an interior pass rusher for us in sub packages, but he’ll also play a lot of 5T. We almost didn’t trade down from 76 because we wanted him so badly, but we were fortunate he was still there.”

By trading back the team added a 3rd rounder next year, giving them three in that round which was a huge boon for TH and he talked about his best skill this year, accumulating more selections. It was a bit strange to see someone go “all-in” on adding talent for Lamar Jackson to trade back and add selections, it was somewhat contradictory.

“That’s a great question. It’s the finest line in the sport of how hard you try to win right now, vs how much you build for 3 or 4 years down the road. Adding four extra picks including the extra 3rd next year was critical for us. To be honest there was only one more target we were in love with at 76 other than James and he went off the board right after so there was no way we were going to get both guys. Trading back to get a 2nd day pick was just too valuable at that spot…. We have a quarterback who is only making 2 million a year right now, and he’s worth 20 times that. Since we have that cap space we have to be as aggressive as we can to try to get a title while he’s underpaid, it’s the simple math of the league.”

There’s definitely some logic there, but you can find more teams who have struggled lately with this tactic than teams who succeed by giving away first round picks in back to back years. The Rams went all in and then gave their guys huge extensions and it completely blew up in their face, if the Texans follow this path and don’t hit on their draft picks it could be a nightmare. 

Dye and Biadasz were super high quality picks where they went. In round 4 the downside risks for both guys are really low. The team wasn’t in the market for a guard but Biadasz and his ability to play both guard and center, ala current interior linemen Paradis and Linder, the fit makes a lot of sense. Dye has some character concerns and is a tweener between linebacker and safety so a lot of teams were scared off there despite his production. When asked about them and why they lasted that long TH made some pretty honest comments:

“Look Troy has some character concerns and size limitations that I get the fear. That said I had a grade on him higher than Patrick Queen, and Queen is a hell of a player. What we liked with Troy was that we love that he can cover, he’s one of the best, if not the best cover linebacker in this class and he will get a lot of reps there this year. Tyler is a great football player. The dude played through a ton of pain this season and his versatility is a really big plus. If he had come out last season he would have been a first round or at worst a top 50 pick and this year he played through injuries and his so called down year was a first team All American year and winning the Rimington award. There’s a real chance he starts at guard for us this season.”

Whoa, a fourth rounder potentially starting at guard is a big comment from a GM in obvious win now mode, but he’s not mincing words.

Trevis Gipson was a bit of a reach, particularly with Bradlee Anae still on the board. That said he’s a strong guy who could potentially play the Jack linebacker spot, but will likely be a 5 technique and a sub package rusher. The scheme fit might have been better but Anae was rated a full round higher on most people’s draft boards, TBHague’s as well. TBHague mentioned this about the pick:

“Seems weird that they would pass on a guy with a lot higher grade, especially when they needed another pass rusher. Seems like they went scheme fit there instead, even though Gipson has a higher upside, Anae can help them right now.”

Adeniji and Hodgins are likely going to make this roster, with Adeniji being the interesting one and Hodgins an Oregon Stat alum which TH loves.

“We love that Adeniji can probably play all 5 positions, and Hodgins is the most insanely productive guy you could find this late in the draft.”

TEXANS DRAFT GRADE: B

The Texans did a really good job of adding extra draft picks which they desperately needed. They also hit more than a home run with Denzel Mims falling all the way to them at the 56th pick. There were some good values here with Lynch, Dye, and Biadasz. Overall though the team just didn’t have the draft capital to make a huge splash. They added a ton of quality depth at positions of need and a potential superstar in Mims but they lacked the firepower the other 3 teams had. That said, based on what they went in with, it has to be considered a win, even if they had the 4th best draft, it was still solid. 

Cap Adjusted Madden Rating

Given the lull before the draft, I thought I’d put together another article.  I hope that this will be the first of a series of articles looking at Madden Ratings.  For some time now, I’ve been using a simple algorithm I developed to better understand the value of my roster as it pertained to Madden.  I’d like to think I’m building a team based on players I would value in real life, and for the most part I am.  At the end of the day, however, this team is tested on the Madden platform, for better or for worse.  Therefore, it would be unwise to completely neglect Madden when making roster decisions.  Rather, I feel the Madden Ratings should be one piece of the puzzle of 3GML roster construction, along with other pieces such as cap value, positional value, age, injury history, etc.  You can’t justify keeping an overpaid, low Madden ranked player, just as real teams can’t keep an overpaid, underperforming player.  In an ideal world, the Madden Rating would perfectly reflect this example.  Unfortunately, Madden has tendencies we’ve all come to know, be it overvaluing “big name” players or undervaluing non-skill player positions.  

In an attempt to make Madden Ratings better reflect real player value, I’ve been toying with a number of ideas.  Early on in my 3GML career, I experimented with a composite value score based on Madden Rating and PFF grades, amongst other items, with the idea that I could “forecast” a player’s development as a positive or negative trend and be proactive in signing and cutting players (the Tre Boston signing was an early signing based on this idea).  Unfortunately, just as I began to make progress on this concept, PFF changed their grading system to what is the statistical equivalent of crap and I scrapped the idea for lack of a better all-encompassing metric.  

Instead, I decided to focus on another metric: salary.

The “Algorithm”

The idea was simple: if a player has a high Madden Rating and a low salary, they should in theory be more valuable to a team than a player that has a high Madden Rating and a high salary. Why? Well, because the high salary player could prevent you from signing another highly rated player, and thus reduce your overall team rating.  I thought a player’s value could reflect this concept; indeed, we see evidence that real organizations recognize this concept in some fashion.  We see it as front offices trading away players for picks before massive extensions.  In theory, the draft picks allow a team to get players at lower salary (who could potentially become highly-rated players) as well as provide cap space to sign other high-impact players.  Now, we can argue over the validity of this concept in real life, as many organizations value picks too highly and players too little.  Further, the salary cap is basically a “myth” to real teams.  But the inescapable fact is real teams have more cap flexibility that 3GML front offices.  We can’t structure or restructure contracts how we want to achieve a favorable cap; we are dependent upon whatever happens in real life.  Each front office has different methods for contract structure and cap distribution. Some prefer to front-load cap hits, others to push them off, and even that may change year-to-year depending on a team’s current salary gap.  The end result is the same balancing act for 3GML managers as those GMs in real life, but only we are blindfolded and have one-hand tied behind our backs.

Thus, I felt I needed a better way to value players in Madden that reflected some aspect of the salary cap.  Nothing fancy, just a simple formula to plug a players Madden Rating and salary cap hit into and return an adjusted value – a “Cap-Adjusted Madden Rating” if you will.  After trial and much error, I came up with a simple logarithmic equation based on the ratio of a players cap hit to their Madden OVR rating.  The equation is founded on the assumption of a “perfect player”: a player with the best possible Madden rating (99 OVR, although Madden once gave Barry Sanders a 100 rating) at the lowest possible salary (NFL minimum salary, $610,000 cap hit in 2020).  Such a player would achieve a perfect “100” score using this equation.  Why 100 and not 99?  Just as you will never see a perfect 100 OVR in Madden, you will never see a player with a 99 OVR who is paid a NFL minimum salary.

The tendencies of the algorithm are as follows:

1)    A player with a low cap hit and high Madden rating will be rated higher than their Madden rating

2)    A player with a high cap hit and high Madden rating will be rated lower than their Madden rating

3)    A player with a modest cap hit and an average Madden rating will be rated around their Madden rating.

Everything else falls in between these tendencies.

Examining the Cap-Adjusted Madden Rating (CAM Rating)

While I could see the CAM rating of my players, I didn’t have a contextual understanding of what the CAM ratings actually meant.  Yes an expensive player at an average Madden rating is bad, but just how bad?  I needed context, and that context could only come with more observations.  Now, as much as I’d like to sit and go through every players Madden Rating and salary cap hit, I don’t have the time, and the EA and OTC / Spotrac websites aren’t set up in such a way that I could easily scrape that data with script.  However, the 3GML spreadsheet solved part of the problem: it provided me with the salary cap hits for over 160 players.  I just had to provide the Madden 20 ratings for those players, and I had a subset of observations wider than my own team.  

Using the 3GML subset, I calculated CAM ratings for every player and plotted them against their original Madden 20 OVR (Figure 1).  I then found a best fit function to describe the relationship (in this case, I found that a simple quadratic equation had the lowest residuals).  The trend line (red) produced can be thought of as a “league average” CAM rating for a given Madden Rating.  Because our distribution is fairly normal (skewness -0.4, kurtosis 3.8), we can assume the values within 1σ and 2σ are within ~ 68% and ~ 95% respectively of the 3GML league distribution.  Anything beyond 2σ would thus be exceptional.  If we ascribe value to these ranges, then we could assume a CAM rating above our trend line would be above average value, while a CAM rating below would be below average.  The natural extension of this would be that anything beyond 1σ of our trend line is either very good or poor value, and beyond 2σ of our trend line would either be exceptionally good or exceptionally poor value.

Figure 1: Cap-Adjusted Madden rating plotted against EA Madden 20 player OVR ratings.  A quadratic equation (best-fit) is plotted in red, showing in essence the “league average” CAM rating at a given Madden Rating. 

With this quantitative relationship, we can now examine each 3GML team’s rosters, and better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the CAM rating.  By splitting the CAM ratings out by team, we also have enough space to label each rating with their respective player.  As you will see below, there is a clear pattern where most players above the trend are players still on rookie deals, while most players below the trend are on their 2nd or 3rd deals.  This should come as no surprise – good players get paid (and often bad ones too).  Because of this bias, I decided it was best to ascribe less harsh value to those players falling within 1σ below our trend line.  The categories I came up with are:

CAM > +2σ → “Exceptional Value”

+1σ < Cam < +2 σ → “Excellent Value”

μ < CAM < +1σ → “Good Value”

CAM = μ → “Average Value”

μ > CAM > -1σ → “Fair Value”

-1σ > CAM > -2σ → “Poor Value”

CAM < -2σ → “Very Poor Value”

Keep these categories in mind as we discuss the CAM ratings for each team below.  You will note that players on your roster without a 2020 cap hit (pending contracts, etc.) are not listed on the charts.

Green Bay Packers

Figure 2: CAM rating for 3GML Green Bay Packers.

Coming off of a Super Bowl victory, this roster was built to win now.  So unsurprisingly the Packers have some big names with big contracts, which shows up here.  Of all the 3GML teams, the Packers have the most players falling within the Fair or Good Value categories; only 9 of their currently rostered players fall outside of 1σ.  Those that do are all big name players.  The best value on the Packers Roster is clearly Juju Smith-Schuster.  He boasts an 86 OVR in Madden, and an 87.2 CAM rating, due in large part to his late 2nd round rookie deal.  On the flip side, his running mate Brandin Cooks is rated at 85 OVR, but caries a whopping $16.8m cap hit in 2020, resulting in a 73.4 CAM rating.  The worst value is OT Jake Matthews, who has a 78 OVR in Madden and a 68.3 CAM.  Take this with a grain of salt, however, as Jake Matthews is clearly better than his Madden rating, and has only a $10.7m cap hit this year.  If this is the worst CAM rated value player on Green Bay’s roster, then the Pack is in a good place.  Oh, and the Packers have the highest number of players (26) above league average CAM rating.

Houston Texans

Figure 3: CAM rating for 3GML Houston Texans.

The Houston Texans roster follows similar trends to the Packer roster.  Over the last 2 seasons, the 3GML Texans GM has been very aggressive in Free Agency and in trades, bringing in a number of big name players on big contracts.  However, what stands out the most about this roster isn’t those players, but rather the players drafted by the Texans.  Genard Avery, Darius Slayton, Derrius Guice, Orlando Brown, Jr., and Lamar Jackson all fall within the Excellent Value category, each playing well above their draft value.  This is particularly true with Jackson, who boasts the highest CAM rating on the Texans roster and at the most important position in football.  On the other side, former draft pick LB Myles Jack sits as the player with the worst value, holding a $15.4m cap hit in 2020 and only a 79 OVR Madden Rating.  This is in part due to a down year for Jack in 2019 (along with the entire Jaguars defense), but also in part due to a quirk of Madden.  Because Jack is listed as a MLB, he immediately takes a 2 OVR rating decrease.  If he is listed as an OLB, his rating increases to 81 OVR, and his CAM rating moves from “Very Poor” to “Poor” value.  While still not ideal, a $15.4m cap hit is still very high for a position that is typically undervalued in both Madden and in real life.  Luckily, the Texans GM has shown a propensity to make up for big spending through excellent drafting, as shown here.

San Francisco 49ers

Figure 5: CAM rating for 3GML San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers are perhaps the team with the least consistency of all of the 3GML rosters.  On one hand, they boast the highest number of players in the Excellent to Exceptional Value range, with 9 players total.  On the other hand, the have the most players in the Very Poor Value range, with 3 players total.  It should come as no surprise that 2 of the 3 players are QBs.  Teddy Bridgewater signed a 3 year, $63m dollar deal to be the starter of the 49ers for the foreseeable future.  With only 75 OVR Madden Rating, his $14m cap hit brings his CAM rating down to 63.1.  The Niners also chose to resign Marcus Mariota on an incentive-laden contract, with a $7.5m cap hit that could escalate to over double that value if he wrests control of the starting position.  His high cap hit at only 68 OVR brings his CAM rating down to 57.3.  It seems the shadow of Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement is looming large over the 49ers’ roster.  On a high note, the 49ers can rely on a strong running game with Alvin Kamara and Phillip Lindsay holding team-high CAM ratings at 90 and 89.2 respectively.  Lindsay’s CAM rating at only 85 Madden OVR puts him in the Exceptional Value range. 

Conclusions

The Cap-Adjusted Madden Rating highlights some interesting patterns for each team, reflective of the strategy each GM takes with respect to roster construction.  While a good initial foray, the CAM rating shows an inherent bias towards players on rookie contracts that must be addressed in future iterations.  As well, the CAM rating reflects Madden biases against non-skill position players, which will not be easy to address.  Also, the current CAM version, while sensitive to cap hits, does not take into account the overall salary cap.  I will work on accounting for the salary cap in the next version of the CAM rating, and hope to share that work in the next installment of this series.